石家庄市正定县空气污染物对湿疹日门诊量影响的时间序列分析

孙成瑶; 唐大镜; 常会云; 陈凤格; 赵川; 关茗洋

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.03.009

石家庄市正定县空气污染物对湿疹日门诊量影响的时间序列分析

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.03.009

孙成瑶^{1, 2},
唐大镜^{1, 2},
常会云^{1, 2},
陈凤格^{1, 3},
赵川^{2, 4},
关茗洋^{1, 3, ,}

1.
050011 石家庄，石家庄市疾病预防控制中心环境卫生所
2.
063210 唐山，华北理工大学公共卫生学院
3.
050011 石家庄，中国疾病预防控制中心环境与健康研究基地(石家庄)
4.
050011 石家庄，石家庄市第四医院

详细信息

通讯作者:
关茗洋, E-mail: gmyguan@qq.com

中图分类号: R181
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-04-23
- 修回日期: 2021-08-12
- 网络出版日期: 2022-03-17
- 刊出日期: 2022-03-10

Time series analysis of the association between air pollution and daily outpatient visits for eczema in Zhengding

SUN Cheng-yao^{1, 2},
TANG Da-jing^{1, 2},
CHANG Hui-yun^{1, 2},
CHEN Feng-ge^{1, 3},
ZHAO Chuan^{2, 4},
GUAN Ming-yang^{1, 3
, ,}

1.
Institute of Environmental Health, Shijiazhuang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shijiazhuang 050011, China
2.
School of Public Health, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan 063210, China
3.
Research Base for Environment and Health in Shijiazhuang, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shijiazhuang 050011, China
4.
The Fourth Hospital of Shijiazhuang, Shijiazhuang 050011, China

More Information

Corresponding author: GUAN Ming-yang, E-mail: gmyguan@qq.com

摘要

摘要: 目的探讨石家庄市正定县空气污染物对湿疹日门诊量的影响。方法收集正定县2017年1月1日至2019年12月31日的湿疹门诊数据以及同期空气污染物数据(PM₁₀、PM_2.5、SO₂和NO₂)和气象因素数据(日均气温、日均相对湿度)。利用广义相加模型分别建立单污染物模型和双污染物模型，分析空气污染物与湿疹日门诊量之间的关系，并按照性别、年龄进行分层分析。结果单污染物模型显示，空气污染物PM₁₀、PM_2.5、SO₂和NO₂浓度每增加10 μg/m³，湿疹日门诊量分别升高0.60%(95% CI：0.16%~1.05%)、0.71%(95% CI：0.04%~1.39%)、4.45%(95% CI：1.51%~7.47%)和2.75%(95% CI：0.24%~5.32%)。拟合双污染物模型后，PM₁₀、PM_2.5和NO₂对湿疹日门诊量的效应消失，SO₂对湿疹日门诊量的效应略微下降。分层分析结果显示，男性、15岁以下和65岁及以上人群可能对污染物更为敏感。结论正定县空气污染物PM₁₀、PM_2.5、SO₂和NO₂浓度升高导致湿疹日门诊量增加。
- 湿疹 /
- 空气污染 /
- 时间序列分析 /
- 广义相加模型
Abstract: Objective This study investigates the impact of atmospheric pollutants on the daily number of outpatient visits for eczema in Zhengding County, Shijiazhuang City. Methods Outpatient information of eczema, atmospheric pollutants concentration data (PM₁₀, PM_2.5, SO₂, and NO₂), and meteorological data (daily average temperature, and relative humidity) in Zhengding from January 1, 2017 to December 31, 2019 were collected. Generalized additive model was chosen to construct single-pollutant models, and double-pollutant models to analyze the association between atmospheric pollutants and daily outpatient visits for eczema. A stratified analysis was performed based on sex and age. Results In single-pollutant models, a 10 μg/m³ increase in PM₁₀, PM_2.5, SO₂, and NO₂ were associated with 0.60% (95% CI: 0.16%-1.05%), 0.71% (95% CI: 0.04%-1.39%), 4.45% (95% CI: 1.51%-7.47%), and 2.75% (95% CI: 0.24%-5.32%) increase in outpatient visits for eczema. In double-pollutant models, the effects of PM₁₀, PM_2.5, and NO₂ disappeared, and the effect of SO₂ declined slightly. Stratification analysis showed that males, people aged less than 15 years, and more than 65 years were relatively more sensitive to atmospheric pollutants. Conclusion The increase in the concentration of PM₁₀, PM_2.5, SO₂, and NO₂ may lead to an increase in the number of outpatient visits for eczema.
- Eczema /
- Atmospheric pollutant /
- Time series analysis /
- Generalized additive model

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图 1 空气污染物浓度每增加10 μg/m³对湿疹日门诊量影响的滞后效应

Figure 1. The lag effect of per 10 μg/m³ increase in atmospheric pollutants concentration on the daily number of outpatient visits for eczema

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图 2 空气污染物浓度与湿疹日门诊量的暴露-反应关系曲线

Figure 2. The exposure-response relationship curves for the association of atmospheric pollutants concentrations with the outpatient visits for eczema

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图 3 空气污染物在不同时间自由度对模型稳定性的影响

Figure 3. Effect of atmospheric pollutants on the stability of the model at different time degrees of freedom

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表 1 2017-2019年正定县空气污染物浓度、气象因素和湿疹日门诊量情况

Table 1. Atmospheric pollutants concentration, meteorological factors, and the daily number of outpatient visits for eczema in Zhengding from 2017 to 2019

变量	x±s	min	P₂₅	P₅₀	P₇₅	max
湿疹日门诊量(人次/d)
全人群	12±6	0	7	10	15	39
男性	6±3	0	3	5	8	21
女性	6±4	0	3	5	8	23
< 15岁	5±4	0	3	5	7	24
15~ < 65岁	5±3	0	3	5	7	18
≥65岁	1±1	0	0	1	1	8
空气污染物(μg/m³)
PM₁₀	149.09±87.86	22.00	87.00	129.00	187.00	633.00
PM_2.5	77.59±62.88	8.00	37.00	57.00	95.00	477.00
SO₂	23.29±19.27	2.00	11.00	18.00	30.00	150.00
NO₂	49.23±20.93	10.00	34.00	47.00	61.00	151.00
气象因素
日均温度(℃)	14.89±11.13	-7.40	4.60	15.80	25.10	33.70
日均相对湿度(%)	53.65±20.23	12.00	38.00	53.00	69.00	100.00

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表 2 2017-2019年正定县空气污染物浓度与气象因素的Spearman相关系数

Table 2. Spearman correlations between atmospheric pollutants concentration and meteorological factors in Zhengding from 2017 to 2019

变量^a	PM₁₀	PM_2.5	SO₂	NO₂	日均温度	日均相对湿度
PM₁₀(μg/m³)	1.000
PM_2.5(μg/m³)	0.871	1.000
SO₂(μg/m³)	0.680	0.569	1.000
NO₂(μg/m³)	0.719	0.661	0.663	1.000
日均温度(℃)	-0.380	-0.406	-0.442	-0.471	1.000
日均相对湿度(%)	-0.094	0.197	-0.427	-0.101	0.183	1.000
注：^a表中相关性均有P < 0.05。

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表 3 不同污染物模型中空气污染物浓度每增加10 μg/m³对湿疹日门诊量的影响(%)

Table 3. Effect of per 10 μg/m³ increase in atmospheric pollutants concentration on the daily number of outpatient visits for eczema in different pollutant models (%)

污染物(μg/m³)	ER(95% CI)
PM₁₀	0.60(0.16~1.05) ^a
PM₁₀+SO₂	0.49(-0.01~0.99)
PM_2.5	0.71(0.04~1.39) ^a
PM_2.5+SO₂	0.45(-0.34~1.25)
PM_2.5+NO₂	0.37(-0.46~1.20)
SO₂	4.45(1.51~7.47) ^a
SO₂+PM₁₀	3.90(0.64~7.27) ^a
SO₂+PM_2.5	4.09(0.75~7.54) ^a
SO₂+NO₂	3.75(0.44~7.16) ^a
NO₂	2.75(0.24~5.32) ^a
NO₂+PM_2.5	2.13(-0.88~5.24)
NO₂+SO₂	1.24(-1.56~4.11)
注：^a P < 0.05。

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表 4 空气污染物浓度每增加10 μg/m³对不同性别、年龄人群湿疹日门诊量的影响[ER(95% CI)%]

Table 4. Effect of per 10 μg/m³ increase in atmospheric pollutants concentration on the daily number of outpatient visits for eczema in people of different genders and ages [ER(95% CI)%]

变量	PM₁₀	PM_2.5	SO₂	NO₂
全人群	0.60(0.16~1.05) ^a	0.71(0.04~1.39) ^a	4.45(1.51~7.47) ^a	2.75(0.24~5.32) ^a
性别
男性	0.69(0.16~1.22) ^a	0.80(0.00~1.60) ^a	5.22(1.70~8.86) ^a	4.31(1.32~7.40) ^a
女性	0.53(-0.03~1.08)	0.63(-0.20~1.46)	3.65(0.08~7.35) ^a	1.16(-1.89~4.31)
年龄(岁)
< 15	0.95(0.37~1.53) ^a	0.95(0.08~1.83) ^a	5.04(1.12~9.10) ^a	3.69(0.43~7.06) ^a
15~< 65	0.26(-0.28~0.80)	0.44(-0.36~1.25)	2.86(-0.53~6.37)	1.42(-1.54~4.47)
≥65	0.61(-0.50~1.73)	0.97(-0.71~2.67)	12.27(4.63~20.47) ^a	4.69(-1.68~11.46)
注：^aP < 0.05。

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