Epidemiological analysis and short-term prediction of bacillary dysentery in Hubei Province from 2005 to 2021
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摘要:
目的 分析湖北省细菌性痢疾分布特征，了解其流行规律，预测其发病趋势，为科学制定防控措施提供参考依据。 方法 基于2005—2021年湖北省细菌性痢疾发病数据，采用Spearman秩相关检验、季节指数、K-均值聚类分析流行特征，运用自回归移动平均(auto-regressive integrated moving average，ARIMA)模型拟合数据并进行预测。 结果 细菌性痢疾年均发病率为14.07/10万，发病呈逐年下降趋势(rs=-0.985，P＜0.001)；K-均值聚类将2005—2011年分为一类，2012—2021年分为另一类；5—10月季节指数大于1，7月最大，8月次之；武汉市、仙桃市、宜昌市为高发地区；男女发病比值为1.23∶1，比值随年龄组先下降后上升；0~＜5岁组发病率最高，其次是≥85岁组；病例以散居儿童、农民、学生为主；拟合最优模型为ARIMA(1, 0, 0) (0, 1, 1)12，预测2022年发病率为1.61/10万。 结论 湖北省细菌性痢疾发病率与年份呈负相关；2005—2011年属于高流行水平期，2012—2021年属于低流行水平期，两个时期的流行特征基本一致；细菌性痢疾在夏季、男性、儿童及老年人群体、交通便利人口密集地区高发；2022年发病持续下降，处于低流行水平。 Abstract:Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of bacillary dysentery and predict its incidence trend in Hubei Province, in order to provide a reference for a scientific formulation of prevention and control measures. Methods Based on the incidence data of bacillary dysentery in Hubei Province from 2005 to 2021, the Spearman rank correlation test, seasonal index and K-means cluster analysis were used to analyze its epidemiological characteristics, and the auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to fit the data and make predictions. Results The average annual incidence of bacillary dysentery was 14.07/per 100 000. The incidence showed a downward trend year by year, with the correlation coefficient between the incidence and the year was -0.985. K-means cluster analysis divided 2005-2011 into one category, and 2012-2021 into another. The seasonal index from May to October was greater than 1, and the largest index was in July, and the second index was in August. The city of Wuhan, Xiantao, and Yichang were the high-incidence areas. The male-female incidence ratio was 1.23∶1. The ratio first decreased and then increased with age, with people aged 0-4 have the highest incidence, followed by those aged 85 and older. The cases were mainly scattered children, farmers and students. The best fitting model was ARIMA(1, 0, 0) (0, 1, 1)12, and the predicted incidence rate in 2022 was 1.61/per 100 000. Conclusions The incidence of bacillary dysentery in Hubei Province was significantly negatively associated with the year. The 2005-2011 belonged to the high prevalence level period, and 2012-2021 belonged to the low prevalence level period. The epidemiological characteristics of the two periods were basically the same. Bacillary dysentery has a high incidence in summer, males, children and elderly groups, and densely populated areas with convenient transportation. In 2022, the incidence will continue to decline, and it will be at a low prevalence level. -
图 2 细菌性痢疾月平均发病率分布图
Figure 2. Distribution of the monthly average incidence of bacillary dysentery
图 5 经季节差分处理后数据序列的ACF和PACF
Figure 5. The ACF and PACF of the data sequence after seasonal differential processing
表 1 地区发病率及聚类分析结果
Table 1. Regional incidence and results of cluster analysis
地区 2005—2011年 2012—2021年 2005—2021年 发病率(/10万) 分2类 发病率(/10万) 分2类 发病率(/10万) 分2类 武汉市 70.95 1 14.38 1 42.67 1 黄石市 17.87 2 5.89 2 11.88 2 十堰市 12.98 2 2.36 2 7.67 2 宜昌市 25.79 2 12.07 1 18.93 2 襄阳市 9.24 2 3.32 2 6.28 2 鄂州市 12.69 2 3.44 2 8.06 2 荆门市 13.37 2 3.66 2 8.51 2 孝感市 11.39 2 3.72 2 7.55 2 荆州市 18.61 2 6.25 2 12.43 2 黄冈市 11.88 2 3.20 2 7.54 2 咸宁市 24.43 2 8.00 2 16.22 2 随州市 11.85 2 2.24 2 7.04 2 恩施州 21.52 2 7.99 2 14.75 2 仙桃市 31.63 2 15.64 1 23.64 2 潜江市 22.72 2 7.39 2 15.05 2 天门市 20.69 2 5.39 2 13.04 2 神农架 10.32 2 2.61 2 6.47 2 F值 62.30 51.09 34.98 P值 <0.001 < 0.001 < 0.001 
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