Joinpoint回归模型在2005―2023年青海省流行性感冒发病趋势的应用

覃胜林; 赵金华; 邓萍; 张阳; 姜雨淇

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.11.009

Joinpoint回归模型在2005―2023年青海省流行性感冒发病趋势的应用

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.11.009

覃胜林¹,
赵金华^{1, 2, ,},
邓萍¹,
张阳¹,
姜雨淇¹

1.
青海大学医学院公共卫生系，西宁 810001
2.
青海省疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所，西宁 810007

基金项目:

“昆仑英才·高原名医”项目 Qing Health Offic [2021] No.104

详细信息

通讯作者:
赵金华，E-mail: 99801973@qq.com

中图分类号: R181.2
计量
- 文章访问数: 74
- HTML全文浏览量: 21
- PDF下载量: 18
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-05-14
- 修回日期: 2024-08-18
- 网络出版日期: 2024-12-23
- 刊出日期: 2024-11-10

Application of Joinpoint regression analysis in the trend of influenza incidence in Qinghai Province from 2005 to 2023

1.
Department of Public Health, Medical College of Qinghai University, Xining 810001, China
2.
Institute for Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Qinghai Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xining 810007, China

Funds:

Kunlun Talents-Plateau Famous Doctors Project Qing Health Offic [2021] No.104

More Information

Corresponding author: ZHAO Jinhua, E-mail: 99801973@qq.com

摘要

摘要: 目的分析2005―2023年青海省流行性感冒(简称流感)发病的流行特征和趋势，为高原地区特异性防控提供参考。方法从中国疾病预防控制信息系统数据库中导出青海省流感发病数据，采用描述性研究方法分析2005―2023年青海省流感的发病率特征；采用Joinpoint回归模型评价2005―2023年青海省流感发病特征的时间变化趋势。结果 2005―2023年青海省累计报告流感病例31 156例，西宁市和海东市累计报告流感病例占全省的77.59%(24 174/31 156)；2005―2023年青海省总发病率整体呈上升趋势，平均年度变化百分比(average annual percent change, AAPC)为31.18%(t=4.780, P < 0.001)；年发病率在性别趋势变化上呈平稳态势；0~ < 5岁组、5~ < 15岁组、15~ < 25岁组、25~ < 60岁组和≥60岁组发病率整体均呈上升趋势，AAPC分别为33.45%、31.20%、27.30%、27.31%和34.61%，所有年龄组发病率均以2021年为转折点，在转折点前缓慢上升，在转折点后急速上升。结论 2005―2023年青海省流感发病率整体呈上升趋势，且在2021年后快速增长，目前处于高发态势，应全面优化医疗资源调配，重点防控地区以西宁市、海东市为圆心向四周辐射；＜15岁和≥60岁人群为高发人群，应加强学校、养老院等重点场所流感监测预警，同时积极推动该类人群接种流感疫苗。
- 流行性感冒 /
- 发病率 /
- Joinpoint回归分析
Abstract: Objective To analyze the epidemic characteristics and trend characteristics of influenza epidemics in Qinghai Province from 2005 to 2023, provide a reference to the specific prevention and control in the plateau areas. Methods The influenza incidence data in Qinghai Province were extracted from the database of China information system for disease control and prevention. The incidence rate of influenza in Qinghai Province was analyzed descriptively from 2005 to 2023. Using the Joinpoint regression model was used to evaluate the time trend of the influenza incidence characteristics in Qinghai Province from 2005 to 2023. Results During 2005-2023, we have cumulatively reported 31 156 cases of influenza in Qinghai Province, of which 77.59% cases were in Xining and Haidong City (24 174/31 156). The total incidence rate in Qinghai Province in 2005-2023 showed an upward trend with an average annual percent change(AAPC) of 31.18% (t=4.780, P < 0.001). The annual incidence rate remained stable in terms of the gender trend changes; and the incidence of the age group in 0- < 5, 5- < 15, 15- < 25, 25- < 60, and ≥60 all showed an increasing trend, with AAPC rising at 33.45%, 31.20%, 27.30%, 27.31% and 34.61%, respectively. All age groups showed a turning point in 2021, which slowly rose before the turning point. Conclusions From 2005 to 2023, influenza incidence in Qinghai Province as a whole showed a slow-rapid rise and is currently in a high incidence situation, which should optimize the deployment of medical resources; the key prevention and control and control areas are Xining City and Haidong City as the center of the circle radiating in all directions; the groups under 15 years old and over 60 years old are the high incidence groups. It is essential to strengthen influenza monitoring and early warning in key locations such as schools and nursing homes, while actively promoting influenza vaccination for these groups.
- Influenza /
- Incidence rate /
- Joinpoint regression model

HTML全文

图 1 2005―2023年青海省不同市(州)累计报告流感病例数百分比

Figure 1. Percentage of reported influenza cases in different cities and prefectures of Qinghai Province, 2005―2023

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 2005―2023年青海省流感趋势变化

A：2005―2023年青海省流感年发病率趋势变化；B：2005―2023年青海省男、女性流感年发病率趋势变化；① P＜0.05。

Figure 2. Trends in influenza changes in Qinghai, 2005―2023

A: incidence rate trend change of influenza disease in Qinghai, 2005―2023; B: gender specifc incidence trend change influenza disease in Qinghai, 2005―2023; ①P < 0.05.

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 2005―2023年青海省各年龄组流感发病率趋势变化

a: P＜0.05。

Figure 3. Incidence trend in influenza disease in different age groups in Qinghai, 2005―2023

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 2005―2023年青海省流感发病数和发病率

Table 1. Case number and incidence of influenza disease in Qinghai, 2005-2023

年份 Year	发病数 Number of cases			发病率 Incidence/100 000^-1
年份 Year	男性 Male	女性 Female	合计 Total	男性 Male	女性 Female	合计 Total
2005	101	89	190	3.649	3.409	3.532
2006	100	77	177	3.645	2.866	3.260
2007	58	45	103	2.059	1.690	1.880
2008	19	28	47	0.670	1.043	0.852
2009	132	79	211	4.637	2.930	3.807
2010	57	40	97	1.992	1.475	1.741
2011	86	62	148	2.952	2.285	2.630
2012	140	114	254	4.869	4.062	4.471
2013	250	237	487	8.476	8.518	8.497
2014	384	323	707	13.122	11.328	12.236
2015	149	127	276	5.080	4.377	4.731
2016	403	364	767	13.421	12.632	13.035
2017	599	627	1 226	19.745	21.648	20.675
2018	590	513	1 103	19.432	17.404	18.433
2019	1 612	1 414	3 026	52.093	48.133	50.165
2020	579	567	1 146	18.566	19.156	18.853
2021	430	399	829	14.173	13.806	13.994
2022	481	415	896	16.087	14.068	15.084
2023	9 800	9 666	19 466	327.894	326.489	327.195

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 2005―2023年青海省流感年龄组发病率趋势变化Joinpoint分析结果

Table 2. Joinpoint analysis of the trends in influenza incidence rates by age group in Qinghai Province, 2005-2023

年龄组/岁 Age group/years	全区段 District section			第一区段 Section 1			第二区段 Section 2
年龄组/岁 Age group/years	年份 Year	AAPC值 value/%	95% CI/%	年份 Year	APC值 value/%	95% CI/%	年份 Year	APC值 value/%	95% CI/%
0~ < 5	2005―2023	33.45^①	19.68~48.80	2005―2021	23.03^①	13.74~33.08	2021―2023	155.71^①	7.23~509.83
5~ < 15	2005―2023	31.20^①	12.75~52.67	2005―2021	16.78^①	6.58~27.96	2021―2023	232.96	-9.35~1 123.00
15~ < 25	2005―2023	27.30^①	9.42~48.11	2005―2021	14.75^①	4.72~25.73	2021―2023	192.05	-20.33~970.65
25~ < 60	2005―2023	27.31^①	15.89~39.85	2005―2021	14.04^①	6.67~21.93	2021―2023	206.93^①	44.23~553.17
≥60	2005―2023	34.61^①	22.80~47.55	2005―2021	15.55^①	8.23~23.37	2021―2023	356.55^①	118.42~854.31
注：APC, 年度变化百分比；AAPC, 平均年度变化百分比。 ① P＜0.05。 Note: APC, annual percent change; AAPC, average annual percent change. ① P＜0.05.

下载: 导出CSV

参考文献(14)

[1]	中国疾病预防控制中心. 中国流感疫苗预防接种技术指南(2022-2023) [J]. 中国病毒病杂志, 2023, 13(1): 1-19. DOI: 10.16505/j.2095-0136.2023.0020. Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Technical guidelines for seasonal influenza vaccination in China, 2022-2023 [J]. Chin J Viral Dis, 2023, 13(1): 1-19. DOI: 10.16505/j.2095-0136.2023.0020.
[2]	Zhang L, Li Y, Ren N, et al. Incidence trends of kidney cancer in China from 1990 to 2019: a Joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis [J]. Clin Nephrol, 2024, 101(4): 181-190. DOI: 10.5414/CN111280.
[3]	陈东宇, 杨晓雨, 王红心, 等. 基于Joinpoint回归和年龄-时期-队列模型分析中国皮肤癌的长期发病趋势[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2022, 26(7): 756-765. DOI: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.07.003. Chen DY, Yang XY, Wang HX, et al. Analysis of secular trends in incidence of skin cancer in China based on Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort model [J]. Chin J Dis Control Prev, 2022, 26(7): 756-765. DOI: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.07.003.
[4]	康小娟, 王晓辉, 丁中航. 2015—2022年甘肃省传染病流行特点及趋势[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2024, 28(4): 381-388. DOI: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.04.002. Kang XJ, Wang XH, Ding ZH. Epidemiological characteristics and trends of infectious diseases in Gansu Province from 2015 to 2022 [J]. Chin J Dis Control Prev, 2024, 28(4): 381-388. DOI: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.04.002.
[5]	陈琪薇, 马新颜, 张青剑, 等. 2015—2021年石家庄市0~14岁儿童伤害病例流行病学特征及变化趋势分析[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2024, 28(4): 443-450. DOI: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.04.011. Chen QW, Ma XY, Zhang QJ, et al. Epidemiological characteristics and trend analysis of injury cases among children aged 0-14 in Shijiazhuang from 2015 to 2021 [J]. Chin J Dis Control Prev, 2024, 28(4): 443-450. DOI: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.04.011.
[6]	朱红兵, 何丽娟. 关于用SPSS中单样本K-S检验法进行正态分布等的一致性检验时适用条件的研究[J]. 首都体育学院学报, 2009, 21(4): 466-470. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-783X.2009.04.021. Zhu HB, He LJ. A study on appropriate conditions in consistency test of normal distribution by single sample K-S check in SPSS [J]. Journal of Capital University of Physical Education Phys, 2009, 21(4): 466-470. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-783X.2009.04.021.
[7]	Telli H, Saraçlı S. Joinpoint regression analysis and an application on Istanbul stock-exchange [J]. Alphanumeric J, 2014, 2(1): 43-49. DOI: 10.1007/BFO2349042.
[8]	代吉亚, 郭汝宁, 刘国恒. 基于Joinpoint回归模型的新型冠状病毒肺炎流行趋势分析[J]. 热带医学杂志, 2020, 20(10): 1375-1379. Dai JY, Guo RN, Liu GH. Analysis of epidemic trend of coronavirus disease 2019 based on Joinpoint regression model [J]. J Trop Med, 2020, 20(10): 1375-1379.
[9]	李辉章, 杜灵彬. Joinpoint回归模型在肿瘤流行病学时间趋势分析中的应用[J]. 中华预防医学杂志, 2020, 54(8): 908-912. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20200616-00889. Li HZ, Du LB. Application of Joinpoint regression model in cancer epidemiological time trend analysis [J]. Chin J Prev Med, 2020, 54(8): 908-912. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20200616-00889.
[10]	赵金华, 龙江, 张华一, 等. 青海省西宁地区2016—2021年儿童流感流行特征及季节性分析[J]. 医学动物防制, 2023, 39(8): 773-777. DOI: 10.7629/yxdwfz202308014. Zhao JH, Long J, Zhang HY, et al. Epidemiological characteristics and seasonal analysis of influenza in children in Xining Area of Qinghai Province from 2016 to 2021 [J]. J Med Pest Contr, 2023, 39(8): 773-777. DOI: 10.7629/yxdwfz202308014.
[11]	徐张懿. 青海高原流感预警技术的研究与应用[D]. 西宁: 青海大学, 2022. Xu ZY. Research and application of influenza early warning technology in Qinghai Plateau [D]. Xining: Qinghai University, 2022.
[12]	Li XH, Tian HD, Lai DJ, et al. Validation of the gravity model in predicting the global spread of influenza [J]. Int J Environ Res Public Health, 2011, 8(8): 3134-3143. DOI: 10.3390/ijerph8083134.
[13]	李红育, 李保娣, 张慧, 等. 甘肃省2009-2012年流感监测及流行特征分析[J]. 中国卫生检验杂志, 2014, 24(21): 3137-3139. Li HY, Li BD, Zhang H, et al. Monitoring on influenza and analysis on epidemic features in Gansu during 2009-2012 [J]. Chin J Health Lab Tec, 2014, 24(21): 3137-3139.
[14]	中国疾病预防控制中心, 国家流感中心. 中国流感流行情况概要(截至2023年12月31日)[EB/OL]. (2024-01-04) [2024-06-13]. https://ivdc.chinacdc.cn/cnic/zyzx/lgzb/202401/t20240104_271820.htm.