2017―2019年某市气象因素与手足口病发病相关性及滞后效应

刘莹莹; 苏通; 薛卫聪; 赵文娜; 谢赟; 魏亚梅; 于秋丽; 韩旭; 李琦

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.11.018

2017―2019年某市气象因素与手足口病发病相关性及滞后效应

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.11.018

1.
河北省疾病预防控制中心病毒防治所，石家庄 050021
2.
邢台市疾病预防控制中心传染病防治所，邢台 054000

基金项目:

河北省医学科学研究课题 20231181

河北省重大医学科研资助项目 zd2013068

详细信息

通讯作者:
李琦，E-mail: liqinew@126.com

中图分类号: R51; R183.4
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-05-10
- 修回日期: 2024-09-13
- 网络出版日期: 2024-12-23
- 刊出日期: 2024-11-10

The relationship between the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease and the impact of meteorological factors in a certain city, 2017-2019

1.
Institute of Prevention and Treatment for Viral Diseases, Hebei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shijiazhuang 050021, China
2.
Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Xingtai Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xingtai 054000, China

Funds:

Medical Science Research Subject of Hebei Province 20231181

Major Medical Scientific Research Subject of Hebei Province zd2013068

More Information

Corresponding author: LI Qi, E-mail: liqinew@126.com

摘要

摘要: 目的分析气象因素对手足口病的发病影响及其滞后效应。方法在中国气象数据网获取2017―2019年某市逐小时气象数据，在中国疾病预防控制信息系统获取2017―2019年某市手足口病每日发病数据。使用两组数据建立分布滞后非线性模型(distributed lag non-linear model, DLNM)。结果以气象因素的中位数值为参考，手足口病的累积发病风险随温度的升高表现为先升高后下降的趋势，累积发病风险曲线近似为S型。温度为-8.5~-4.0 ℃，滞后6~23 d时，日均气温表现为保护作用，日均气温为-8.5 ℃，滞后7 d时，手足口病的发病风险最低(RR=0.741, 95% CI: 0.583~0.941)。日均气压为1 015~1 038 hPa，滞后4~25 d时，表现为保护作用，日均气压为1 038 hPa，滞后25 d时，发病风险最低(RR=0.706, 95% CI: 0.540~0.924)。结论手足口病受到气象因素的影响，高温会增加手足口病的发病风险，其对手足口病发病率的影响并不稳定；低温及高气压会降低手足口病的发病风险，三者均存在一定的滞后性。
- 手足口病 /
- 气象因素 /
- 分布滞后非线性模型
Abstract: Objective To investigate the influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) and their lagged effects. Methods Hourly meteorological data for a certain city from 2017 to 2019 were obtained from the China Meteorological Data Network, while daily incidence data for HFMD in a certain city during the same period were retrieved from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. Using these two datasets, a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was constructed. Results With reference to the median values of meteorological factors, the cumulative risk of HFMD exhibited a pattern of initial increase followed by decrease as temperature rose, forming an S-shaped curve. Specifically, a protective effect was observed when the daily average temperature was between -8.5 ℃ and -4.0 ℃ with a lag of 6 to 23 days. At a daily average temperature of -8.5 ℃ with a lag of 7 days, the risk of HFMD was at its lowest (RR=0.741, 95% CI: 0.583-0.941). Similarly, a protective effect was noted for daily average atmospheric pressure between 1 015 and 1 038 hPa with a lag of 4 to 25 days. At a daily average pressure of 1 038 hPa with a lag of 25 days, the risk of HFMD was at its minimum (RR=0.706, 95% CI: 0.540-0.924). Conclusions HFMD is influenced by meteorological factors. High temperatures increase the risk of HFMD, although their impact on incidence rates is unstable. Conversely, low temperatures and high atmospheric pressures reduce the risk of HFMD, and all three factors exhibit a discernible lagged effect.
- Hand, foot and mouth disease /
- Meteorological factors /
- Distribution lag nonlinear model

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图 1 2017―2019年某市手足口病与气象因素的时间分布

Figure 1. Temporal distribution of hand, foot and mouth disease and meteorological factors in a certain city, 2017-2019

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图 2 气温与气压对手足口病的总累积效应图

Figure 2. The total cumulative effect of temperature and air pressure on hand, foot and mouth disease

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图 3 气温与气压在不同滞后时间的RR值

Figure 3. RR values of temperature and air pressure at different lag times

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图 4 低温和高温、低气压和高气压滞后效应图

Figure 4. Lag effect diagrams for low and high temperatures, low and high pressures

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表 1 2017―2019年某市手足口病日发病数及气象因素基本情况

Table 1. Basic information on the number of daily incidences of hand, foot and mouth disease and meteorological factors in a certain city from 2017 to 2019

变量 Variable	x±s	极小值 Min	第25百分位数 P₂₅	第50百分位数 P₅₀	第75百分位数 P₇₅	极大值 Max
日发病数 Daily number of new cases	6.340±7.993	0	1.000	4.000	9.000	68.000
日均气压 Daily average pressure/hPa	1 011.612±10.300	989.217	1 001.907	1 011.457	1 018.947	1 038.220
日均风速 Daily average wind speed/(m·s^-1)	2.152±0.725	0.943	1.624	2.024	2.569	5.504
日均气温 Daily average temperature/℃	14.612±11.077	-8.531	4.030	15.572	24.706	32.571
日均相对湿度 Daily average relative humidity/%	60.560±18.830	16.680	45.531	59.729	75.893	98.651
24 h降水量 24-hour rainfall/mm	1.090±4.305	0	0	0	0.040	72.000

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表 2 2017―2019年邢台市手足口病发病数与气象因素相关性分析结果

Table 2. Results of correlation analysis between the number of hand, foot and mouth disease cases and meteorological factors in Xingtai City from 2017 to 2019

	日发病数 Daily number of new cases	日均气压 Daily average atmospheric pressure/hPa	日均风速 Daily average wind speed /(m·s^-1)	日均气温 Daily average temperature/℃	日均相对湿度 Daily average relative humidity/%	24 h降水量 24-hour rainfall/mm
日发病数 Daily number of new cases	1.000
日均气压 Daily average pressure	0.668	1.000
日均风速 Daily average wind speed/(m·s^-1)	0.001^①	-0.222	1.000
日均气温 Daily average temperature/℃	0.758	-0.913	0.143	1.000
日均相对湿度 Daily average relative humidity/%	0.205	-0.191	-0.383	0.183	1.000
24 h降水量 24-hour rainfall/mm	0.283	-0.267	-0.045	0.256	0.551	1.000
注：① P＞0.05。 Note: ① P＞0.05.

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