Survival analysis of HIV/AIDS in Anhui among different AIDS diagnosis and treatment guidelines, 2006-2022
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摘要:
目的 比较安徽省人类免疫缺陷病毒(human immunodeficiency virus, HIV)感染者和艾滋病(acquired immune deficiency syndrome, AIDS)患者(简称HIV/AIDS患者)在不同《艾滋病诊断与治疗指南》(简称《指南》)下的生存率，并探讨生存时间的影响因素。 方法 基于安徽省2006―2022年HIV/AIDS患者的回顾性队列研究，根据《指南》发布时间将整个研究阶段分为5个时期。采用Life-table法和Cox比例风险回归模型分析HIV/AIDS患者生存率和生存时间的影响因素。 结果 共纳入25 334名研究对象，其中83.51%为男性，68.76%诊断年龄＞30~＜60岁，49.70%居住在皖北地区。5个时期的1年生存率(分别为95%、95%、97%、97%和96%)的差异有统计学意义(χ2 =46.180, P＜0.001)；前4个时期的2年累计生存率(分别为93%、94%、95%和95%)的差异有统计学意义(χ2 =17.103, P＜0.001)。Cox比例风险回归模型显示，在影响HIV/AIDS患者死亡风险的因素中，女性是男性的0.654(95% CI : 0.588~0.727, P＜0.001)、≥60岁组者是低年龄组者的4.665倍(95% CI: 3.930~5.539, P＜0.001)、未婚者是已婚者的1.555倍(95% CI: 1.382~1.750, P＜0.001)、初中以上文化程度是小学的0.756(95% CI: 0.688~0.831, P＜0.001)、同性传播是异性传播的0.586(95% CI: 0.524~0.656, P＜0.001)、高水平CD4+T淋巴细胞(简称CD4)计数是低水平的0.385(95% CI: 0.329~0.451, P＜0.001)。 结论 随着中国《指南》的更新，HIV/AIDS患者生存率呈上升趋势。 Abstract:Objective This study aims to compare the survival rates of HIV infected and AIDS patients (HIV/AIDS) in Anhui Province under different versions of Guidelines for Diagnosis and Treatment of AIDS, and explore the factors influencing survival time. Methods Based on a retrospective cohort study of HIV/AIDS in Anhui Province from 2006 to 2022, the study period was divided into five phases according to the publication dates of the Guidelines. The Life-table method and Cox proportional hazards model were used to analyze survival rates and factors influencing survival time. Results A total of 25 334 participants were included, of whom 83.51% were male, 68.76% were aged of diagnosis > 30- < 60 years, and 49.70% resided in northern Anhui Province. The one-year survival rates across the five periods (95%, 95%, 97%, 97%, and 96%) showed significant differences (χ2 =46.180, P < 0.001). Similarly, the two-year survival rates for the first four periods (93%, 94%, 95%, and 95%) also exhibited significant differences (χ2 =17.103, P < 0.001). Cox proportional hazards regression analysis revealed the following factors influencing HIV/AIDS mortality risk, females had 0.654 times lower risk than males (95% CI : 0.588-0.727, P < 0.001). Individuals aged over 60 years had 4.665 times higher risk compared to younger individuals (95% CI: 3.930-5.539, P < 0.001). Unmarried individuals had 1.555 times higher risk than married individuals (95% CI : 1.382-1.750, P < 0.001). Those with education above primary school had 0.756 times lower risk compared to those with primary education (95% CI: 0.688-0.831, P0.001). Homosexual transmission was associated with 0.586 times lower risk than heterosexual transmission (95% CI: 0.524-0.656, P < 0.001). Additionally, higher CD4+ T lymphocyte (CD4) counts were associated with 0.385 times lower risk compared to lower counts (95% CI: 0.329-0.451, P < 0.001). Conclusions With the updates to China′s Guidelines, the survival rate of HIV/AIDS has shown an upward trend. -
Key words:
- Human immunodeficiency virus /
- Antiretroviral therapy /
- Survival analysis
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图 1 安徽省2006―2022年不同时期HIV/AIDS患者生存曲线
HIV: 人类免疫缺陷病毒; AIDS: 艾滋病; A：5个时期HIV/AIDS患者1年生存曲线; B：前4个时期HIV/AIDS患者2年生存曲线; C：前4个时期HIV/AIDS患者3年生存曲线。
Figure 1. Survival curves for HIV/AIDS in Anhui Province among different periods from 2006 to 2022
HIV: human immunodeficiency virus; AIDS: acquired immune deficiency syndrome; A: 1-year survival curves of HIV/AIDS in five periods; B: 2-year survival curves of HIV/AIDS in the first four periods; C: 3-year survival curves of HIV/AIDS in the first four periods.
表 1 2006―2022年安徽省不同时期HIV/AIDS患者一般人口学特征
Table 1. General demographic characteristics of HIV/AIDS in Anhui Province in different periods from 2006 to 2022
变量
Variable2006―2022年year
(n=25 334)①时期一
Period one
(n=2 500)①时期二
Period two
(n=5 583)①时期三
Period three
(n=7 622)①时期四
Period four
(n=7 188)①时期五
Period five
(n=2 441)①P值
value居住地区 Household region < 0.001 南部 Southern 4 889(19.30) 478(19.12) 1 176(21.06) 1 487(19.51) 1 325(18.43) 423(17.33) 中部 Central 7 854(31.00) 53(21.20) 1 783(31.94) 2 469(32.39) 2 274(31.64) 798(32.69) 北部 Northern 12 591(49.70) 1 492(59.68) 2 624(47.00) 3 666(48.10) 3 589(49.93) 122(49.98) 性别 Gender < 0.001 男 Male 21 156(83.51) 179(68.36) 4 622(82.79) 662(86.62) 6 145(85.49) 278(85.13) 女 Female 4 178(16.49) 791(31.64) 961(17.21) 12(13.38) 143(14.51) 363(14.87) 诊断年龄/岁 Age of diagnosis/years < 0.001 ≤30 7 914(31.24) 666(26.64) 227(36.31) 256(33.59) 26(28.66) 61(24.62) ＞30~＜60 13 944(55.04) 1 719(68.76) 317(54.04) 3 995(52.41) 3 897(54.21) 1 316(53.91) ≥60 3 476(13.72) 115(4.60) 539(9.65) 167(14.00) 1 231(17.13) 524(21.47) 民族 Ethnicity < 0.001 汉族 The Han nationality 25 153(99.29) 2 464(98.56) 5 531(99.07) 7 583(99.49) 7 143(99.37) 2 432(99.63) 其他 Ethnic minority 181(0.71) 36(1.44) 52(0.93) 39(0.51) 45(0.63) 9(0.37) 婚姻状况 Marital status < 0.001 未婚 Unmarried 8 925(35.23) 542(21.68) 24(36.54) 2 942(38.60) 26(36.17) 81(32.81) 已婚 Married 11 543(45.56) 1 526(61.04) 2 525(45.23) 3 291(43.18) 376(42.79) 1 125(46.09) 丧偶/离异 Widowed/divorced 4 866(19.21) 432(17.28) 118(18.23) 1 389(18.22) 1 512(21.04) 515(21.10) 职业 Occupation < 0.001 家政服务 Housekeeping 3 922(15.48) 199(7.96) 98(17.55) 1 227(16.10) 113(15.72) 386(15.81) 农民 Farmer 1 332(51.45) 173(68.12) 2 788(49.94) 3 655(47.95) 3 598(50.06) 1 288(52.76) 商业服务 Business service provider 5 184(20.46) 269(10.76) 153(18.86) 1 733(22.74) 1 612(22.43) 517(21.18) 退休 Retirees 538(2.12) 24(0.96) 15(1.88) 189(2.48) 162(2.25) 58(2.38) 其他 Others 2 658(10.49) 35(12.20) 657(11.77) 818(10.73) 686(9.54) 192(7.87) 文化程度 Educational level < 0.001 小学及以下 Primary or below 739(28.85) 15(42.00) 142(25.11) 1 965(25.78) 2 112(29.38) 78(31.95) 初中 Junior high school 934(35.66) 923(36.92) 2 162(38.73) 2 742(35.98) 2 412(33.56) 795(32.57) 高中 Senior high school 4 282(16.90) 37(12.28) 162(19.02) 1 382(18.13) 1 193(16.60) 338(13.85) 大学及以上 College or above 479(18.59) 22(8.80) 957(17.14) 1 533(20.11) 1 471(20.46) 528(21.63) CD4计数/(个·μL-1) CD4 count/(cells·μL-1) < 0.001 < 200 8 918(35.20) 1 364(54.56) 26(35.93) 2 373(31.13) 2 341(32.57) 834(34.17) 200~＜350 7 299(28.81) 832(33.28) 1 789(32.05) 261(27.04) 1 962(27.29) 655(26.83) 350~500 4 922(19.43) 171(6.84) 1 124(20.13) 1 614(21.18) 1 513(21.05) 5(20.48) ＞500 4 195(16.56) 133(5.32) 664(11.89) 1 574(20.65) 1 372(19.09) 452(18.52) 传播途径 Route of HIV transmission < 0.001 异性传播 Heterosexual behavior 13 157(51.93) 1 147(45.88) 2 991(53.57) 3 814(50.04) 3 831(53.30) 1 374(56.29) 同性传播 Homosexual behavior 191(43.03) 493(19.72) 2 445(43.79) 3 676(48.23) 3 253(45.26) 134(42.36) 血液传播 Blood behavior 836(3.30) 722(28.88) 84(1.51) 23(0.30) 6(0.08) 1(0.04) 其他 Others 44(1.74) 138(5.52) 63(1.13) 19(1.43) 98(1.36) 32(1.31) WHO疾病分期 WHO staging of disease < 0.001 1期 Stage 1 15 402(60.80) 967(38.68) 319(55.69) 4 968(65.18) 4 886(67.97) 1 472(60.31) 2期 Stage 2 4 613(18.20) 589(23.56) 123(18.32) 1 374(18.03) 1 129(15.71) 498(20.40) 3期 Stage 3 3 728(14.70) 732(29.28) 992(17.77) 92(11.83) 822(11.44) 28(11.47) 4期 Stage 4 1 591(6.30) 212(8.48) 459(8.22) 378(4.96) 351(4.88) 191(7.82) 注：HIV, 人类免疫缺陷病毒; AIDS, 艾滋病; WHO疾病分期, 1期无症状期、2期轻度疾病期、3期中度疾病期、4期严重疾病期。
①以人数(占比/%)表示。
Note: HIV, human immunodeficiency virus; AIDS, acquired immune deficiency syndrome; WHO disease stages, stage 1 is asymptomatic, stage 2 is mild disease, stage 3 is moderate disease, and stage 4 is severe disease.
① Number of people (proportion/%).
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表 2 2006―2022年安徽省不同时期HIV/AIDS患者生存分析
Table 2. Survival analysis of HIV/AIDS in Anhui Province at different periods from 2006 to 2022
时期
Periods生存时间/月
Time since diagnosis /months期初观察例数
Number of observers删失人数
Number of missed visits死亡人数
Number of deaths死亡率
Mortality/%生存率
Survival rate/%累计生存率
Cumulative survival rate/%时期一 Period one 0 2 500 0 132 5 95 95 12 2 368 0 36 2 98 93 24 2 332 0 34 1 99 92 36 2 298 1 956 342 26 74 68 时期二 Period two 0 5 583 1 261 5 95 95 12 5 321 1 92 2 98 94 24 5 228 1 75 1 99 92 36 5 152 4 760 392 14 86 79 时期三 Period three 0 7 622 1 232 3 97 97 12 7 389 6 158 2 98 95 24 7 225 0 135 2 98 93 36 7 090 6 835 255 7 93 87 时期四 Period four 0 7 188 5 226 3 97 97 12 6 957 1 924 130 2 98 95 24 4 903 2 169 74 2 98 93 36 2 660 2 643 17 1 99 92 时期五 Period five 0 2 441 1 892 65 4 96 96 12 484 484 0 0 100 96 注：HIV, 人类免疫缺陷病毒; AIDS, 艾滋病。
Note: HIV, human immunodeficiency virus; AIDS, acquired immune deficiency syndrome.
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表 3 2006―2022年安徽省HIV/AIDS患者生存时间多因素Cox比例风险模型分析
Table 3. Multivariate Cox proportional risk modeling analysis of HIV/AIDS survival time in Anhui Province from 2006 to 2022
变量
Variable例数
Number of cases①单因素Cox回归分析
Univariate Cox regression多因素Cox回归分析
Multivariate Cox regressionHR值 value
(95% CI)P值
valueHR值 value
(95% CI)P值
value居住地区 Household region 南部 Southern 4 889(19.30) 1.000 中部 Central 7 854(31.00) 1.000(0.888~1.127) 0.995 北部 Northern 12 591(49.70) 1.351(1.216~1.502) < 0.001 性别 Gender 男 Male 21 156(83.51) 1.000 1.000 女 Female 4 178(16.49) 0.965(0.874~1.066) 0.486 0.654(0.588~0.727) < 0.001 诊断年龄/岁 Age of diagnosis/years ≤30 7 914(31.24) 1.000 1.000 ＞30~＜60 13 944(55.04) 2.862(2.527~3.243) < 0.001 1.795(1.550~2.079) < 0.001 ≥60 3 476(13.72) 9.990(8.759~11.395) < 0.001 4.665(3.930~5.539) < 0.001 种族 Ethnicity 汉族 The Han nationality 25 153(99.29) 1.000 其他 Ethnic minority 181(0.71) 0.951(0.619~1.461) 0.818 婚姻状况 Marital status 已婚 Married 11 543(45.56) 1.000 1.000 未婚 Unmarried 8 925(35.23) 0.664(0.608~0.726) < 0.001 1.555(1.382~1.750) < 0.001 丧偶/离异 Widowed/divorced 4 866(19.21) 0.364(0.326~0.406) < 0.001 1.321(1.206~1.448) < 0.001 文化程度 Educational level 小学及以下 Primary or below 739(28.85) 1.000 1.000 初中 Junior high school 934(35.66) 0.471(0.433~0.513) < 0.001 0.756(0.688~0.831) < 0.001 高中 Senior high school 4 282(16.90) 0.315(0.277~0.359) < 0.001 0.622(0.537~0.719) < 0.001 大学及以上 College or above 479(18.59) 0.128(0.106~0.155) < 0.001 0.362(0.291~0.450) < 0.001 职业 Occupation 家政服务 Housekeeping 3 922(15.48) 1.000 1.000 农民 Farmer 1 332(51.45) 1.759(1.559~1.986) < 0.001 1.067(0.940~1.211) 0.315 商业服务 Business service provider 5 184(20.46) 0.501(0.419~0.598) < 0.001 0.741(0.618~0.889) 0.001 退休 Retirees 538(2.12) 3.747(3.058~4.591) < 0.001 1.484(1.196~1.841) < 0.001 其他 Others 2 658(10.49) 0.644(0.530~0.784) < 0.001 0.922(0.755~1.126) 0.427 传播途径 Route of HIV transmission 异性传播 Heterosexual behavior 13 157(51.93) 1.000 1.000 同性传播 Homosexual behavior 191(43.03) 0.315(0.286~0.348) < 0.001 0.586(0.524~0.656) < 0.001 血液传播 Blood behavior 836(3.30) 1.098(0.954~1.264) 0.192 0.929(0.789~1.095) 0.379 其他 Others 44(1.74) 0.834(0.650~1.071) 0.155 1.077(0.834~1.390) 0.571 诊疗时期 diagnosis and treatment periods 时期五 Period five 2 441(9.64) 1.000 1.000 时期四 Period four 7 188(28.37) 1.266(0.967~1.659) 0.086 1.286(0.971~1.702) 0.079 时期三 Period three 7 622(30.09) 1.158(0.892~1.503) 0.270 1.436(1.105~1.867) 0.007 时期二 Period two 5 583(22.04) 1.083(0.836~1.404) 0.547 1.374(1.060~1.782) 0.016 时期一 Period one 2 500(9.87) 1.032(0.793~1.344) 0.812 1.168(0.897~1.521) 0.249 CD4计数/(个·μL-1) CD4 count/(cell·μL-1) < 200 8 918(35.20) 1.000 1.000 200~＜350 7 299(28.81) 0.386(0.351~0.425) < 0.001 0.473(0.429~0.522) < 0.001 350~500 4 922(19.43) 0.260(0.227~0.298) < 0.001 0.371(0.322~0.427) < 0.001 ＞500 4 195(16.56) 0.247(0.212~0.288) < 0.001 0.385(0.329~0.451) < 0.001 WHO疾病分期 WHO staging of disease 1期 stage 1 15 402(60.80) 1.000 1.000 2期 stage 2 4 613(18.20) 1.331(1.197~1.480) < 0.001 1.078(0.967~1.201) 0.175 3期 stage 3 3 728(14.70) 2.062(1.871~2.272) < 0.001 1.355(1.221~1.502) < 0.001 4期 stage 4 1 591(6.30) 3.356(2.988~3.770) < 0.001 2.121(1.879~2.395) < 0.001 注：HIV, 人类免疫缺陷病毒; AIDS, 艾滋病; WHO疾病分期, 1期无症状期、2期轻度疾病期、3期中度疾病期、4期严重疾病期。
①以人数(占比/%)表示。
Note: HIV, human immunodeficiency virus; AIDS, acquired immune deficiency syndrome; WHO disease stages, stage 1 is asymptomatic, stage 2 is mild disease, stage 3 is moderate disease, and stage 4 is severe disease.
① Number of people (proportion/%).
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