基于空间点模式分析全球高致病性禽流感H5N1的空间分布特征

孙利谦; 夏聪聪; 李锐; 胡艺; 林燧恒; 熊成龙; 张志杰

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2016.06.005

基于空间点模式分析全球高致病性禽流感H5N1的空间分布特征

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2016.06.005

孙利谦¹,
夏聪聪¹,
李锐¹,
胡艺¹,
林燧恒²,
熊成龙^3, ,,
张志杰^1, ,

1. 复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室、复旦大学公共卫生学院公共卫生安全教育部重点实验室、复旦大学公共卫生学院空间分析与建模实验室, 上海 200032;
2. 复旦大学公共卫生学院统计教研室, 上海 200032;
3. 复旦大学公共卫生学院微生物教研室, 上海 200032

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金（81172609）；上海市新优青计划资助（XYQ2013071）；鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室（江西师范大学）开放基金资助项目（PK2014001）

详细信息

作者简介:
孙利谦(1988-),女,河南安阳人,在读硕士研究生。主要研究方向:传染性疾病的空间流行病学。

中图分类号: R181.2;R512.99
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2016-02-25
- 修回日期: 2016-04-10

Spatial distribution characteristics of global highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 based on the spatial point pattern analysis

1. Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University;Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Fudan University;Laboratory for Spatial Analysis and Modeling, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China;
2. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China;
3. Department of Public Health Microbiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China

摘要

摘要: 目的探索全球高致病性禽流感（highly pathogenic avian influenza, HPAI）H5N1疫情的空间分布特征，识别高风险聚集区，为禽流感疫情监测、发展趋势提供科学依据。方法收集和整理世界动物卫生组织和粮农组织疫情监测报告中的2004年1月～2009年12月间的 HPAI H5N1疫情，运用空间扫描统计量和空间聚类方法分析全球HPAI H5N1的空间分布。结果空间扫描统计量分析显示疫情呈现非随机分布的特征，在空间分布上存在聚集性，共检测出15个高风险聚集区，主要集中在中欧、南欧、非洲东北部地区以及亚洲的东南部地区。空间聚类分析显示高风险聚集区主要集中于欧洲的德国、法国、瑞士和意大利，以及亚洲的东南部地区。结论全球HPAI H5N1呈现空间聚集分布，高风险聚集区主要位于中欧、南欧以及东南亚，为重点监控区域。候鸟迁徙可能是跨洲远距离传播的重要途径。
- 流行病学 /
- 禽流感 /
- 模型,统计学 /
- 统计学分布
Abstract: Objective To explore the spatial distribution characteristics and identify high risk clusters, so as to provide scientific evidence for epidemic surveillance and trends of avian influenza H5N1. Methods H5N1 outbreak reported to World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the UN from January 2004 to December 2009 were collected. Spatial scan statistics and spatial clustering analysis were used to analyze the spatial distribution of HPAI H5N1. Results Spatial scan statistics showed that the epidemic distribution was non-random. 15 high risk clusters were detected, which were mainly concentrated in Central and Southern Europe, the Northeast of Africa, and the Southeast of Asia. Spatial clustering analysis showed that high risk clusters were mainly concentrated in Germany, France, Switzerland, Italy, and Southeast Asia region. Conclusions Clustering of H5N1 outbreaks was confirmed in this study, and high risk clusters were mainly concentrated in the Central and Southern Europe and the Southeast of Asia,where enhanced surveillance should be conducted. Birds migration may play a key role in H5N1 spreading across continents over a long distance.
- Epidemiology /
- Influenza in birds /
- Models, statistical /
- Statistical distributions

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参考文献(25)

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基于空间点模式分析全球高致病性禽流感H5N1的空间分布特征

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2016.06.005

作者简介:
孙利谦(1988-),女,河南安阳人,在读硕士研究生。主要研究方向:传染性疾病的空间流行病学。

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Spatial distribution characteristics of global highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 based on the spatial point pattern analysis

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目录

留言板

基于空间点模式分析全球高致病性禽流感H5N1的空间分布特征

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2016.06.005

作者简介: 孙利谦(1988-),女,河南安阳人,在读硕士研究生。主要研究方向:传染性疾病的空间流行病学。

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出版历程

Spatial distribution characteristics of global highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 based on the spatial point pattern analysis

计量

出版历程

目录

作者简介:
孙利谦(1988-),女,河南安阳人,在读硕士研究生。主要研究方向:传染性疾病的空间流行病学。