Impact of ambient particulate matters exposure on the risk of influenza-like illness in Ningbo, China: a time series study
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摘要: 目的 探讨宁波市大气颗粒物中可吸入颗粒物(inhalable particulate matter,PM10)及细颗粒物(fine particulate matter,PM2.5)的浓度对流感样病例发病的影响。方法 应用分布滞后非线性模型对2014-2016年的大气颗粒物PM10及PM2.5的浓度与同期流感样病例的时间序列进行研究,分析两者之间的关联性,计算相应归因危险度百分比(attributable risk proportion,AR%)以评估污染物对流感样病例发病的急性效应。结果 两种颗粒物浓度均与流感样病例发病数呈正相关,单污染物分析中,两种大气颗粒污染物均会造成短期内的流感样病例发病的增加,且产生的影响表现出滞后性和收获效应,其中PM10产生的效应AR%值要高于PM2.5,滞后0~7 d的累积AR%值分别为5.13%(95% CI:2.94%~7.37%,P<0.001)和2.52%(95% CI:-0.75%~5.90%,P=0.139)。而双污染物分析中,调整其他气态污染物后,PM10与流感样病例之间的关联强度发生改变,PM2.5仅在纳入二氧化氮(nitrogen dioxide,NO2)后引起滞后0~7 d的流感样病例发病的增加。结论 颗粒物PM10及PM2.5浓度的升高会引起同期流感样病例发病的增加。Abstract: Objective To investigate the effect of ambient particulate matters with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5) and ≤ 10 μm (PM10)on the incidence of influenza-like illness in Ningbo.Methods Time series study on PM2.5, PM10 and the incidence of influenza-like illness from 2014 to 2016 was investigated by using the distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). The corresponding attributable risk proportion(AR%) was calculated to assess the acute effect of contaminants on the onset of influenza-like illness.Results There was a positive correlation between the two kinds of particulate matters, PM10 and PM2.5, and the incidence of influenza-like cases. Analysis of single pollutant showed that both PM10 and PM2.5 increased the incidence of influenza-like illness in the short term, and the effect was characterized by hysteresis and harvesting, with the AR% of 5.13%(95% CI:2.94%-7.37%,P<0.001) and 2.52%(95% CI:-0.75%-5.90%,P=0.139), respectively. Furthermore, the acute health effects caused by PM10 were more severe than that caused by PM2.5. Analysis of double pollutants showed that the association between PM10 and influenza-like illness was changed after adjusting for other gaseous pollutants. By contrast, PM2.5 significantly increased the incidence of influenza-like illness with a 0-7 day lag after adjusting nitrogen dioxide (NO2).Conclusion Increased concentrations of PM10 and PM2.5 may increase the incidence of influenza-like illness.
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Key words:
- PM10 /
- PM2.5 /
- Distribution hysteresis nonlinear model /
- Influenza-like cases /
- Epidemiological methods
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