Respiratory mortality risk attributable to relative humidity in Zhejiang Province from 2010 to 2013
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摘要: 目的 气候变化对呼吸系统疾病的影响越来越受到人们关注。本研究旨在探讨在浙江省相对湿度与呼吸系统疾病死亡之间的关系。方法 收集浙江省11个城市2010-2013年的气象资料和呼吸系统疾病的死亡数据,采用分布滞后非线性模型(distributed lag non-liner model,DLNM)与归因分值(attributable fraction,AF)估计相对湿度对呼吸系统疾病死亡的影响,采用多元Meta分析合并11个城市相对湿度对呼吸系统疾病死亡的暴露反应的归因百分比。结果 本研究收集了63 589例呼吸系统疾病死亡病例数;死亡率归因于非最佳湿度的合并AF为6.16%(95% eCI:1.97%~9.34%),归因于低湿度死亡百分比为4.69%(95% eCI:1.79%~6.94%),归因于高湿度占1.47%(95% eCI:-1.17%~3.57%)。11个城市的最低死亡率湿度(minimum mortality humidity,MMH)平均值为88%,范围从44%增加至93%。其中8个城市的MMH分布范围为80%~95%。与女性、老年人和沿海地区相比,归因于低湿和高湿的死亡百分比在男性、青年和内陆地区均较高。结论 大多数与湿度有关的死亡负担归因于低湿,本研究对减少极端湿度对呼吸系统疾病的风险有重要意义。Abstract: Objective Climate change has a significant impact on human health. This study aims to examine the relationship between humidity and respiratory related mortality in China.Methods We collected the daily meteorological data and respiratory mortality from 11 cities in Zhejiang Province during 2010-2013. We applied distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) with the indicator of attributable fraction (AF) to estimate the city-specific effect of humidity on respiratory mortality, and then used multivariate Meta-analytical model to pool the effect estimates in the 11 cities.Results We analyzed the total of 63 589 respiratory deaths during the study period,among which 6.16% (95% eCI:1.97%-9.34%) of mortality were attributable to non-optimum humidity. We observed a significant cumulative effect due to low humidity with an AF of 4.69% (95% eCI:1.79%-6.94%) while that due to high humidity was 1.47% (95% eCI:-1.17%-3.57%). The minimum mortality humidity (MMH) increased from 44% to 93% with a median of 88% which was corresponding to the percentile ranged from 80th to 95th percentiles in 8 cities. Both attributable fractions of high and low humidity were higher among males, youth and inland people in comparison with females, elderly and coastal people.Conclusions Most of the humidity-related mortality burden was attributable to the low humidity. This evidence has important implications for reducing the risk of extreme humidity for respiratory mortality.
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Key words:
- Respiratory system /
- Humidity /
- Death /
- Epidemiologic studies
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