摘要:
目的 分析山东省2014-2016年布鲁氏菌病疫情空间分布特征及空间聚集性，为制订相应的防控策略提供科学依据。方法 基于GeoDA1.8.16软件，采用全局和局部空间自相关分析方法对山东省2014-2016年布鲁氏菌病疫情数据进行分析。结果 山东省2014-2016年共报告布鲁氏菌病10 630例，发病率由2.91/10万（2 845例）上升到4.03/10万（4 009例），年均报告发病率为3.59/10万。经趋势χ2检验，年度报告发病率呈上升趋势（χ趋势2=172.87，P<0.001）。疫情流行范围已波及到136个县（市、区）。全局空间自相关分析结果显示，布鲁氏菌病发病率全局莫兰指数（Moran's I）分别为0.323、0.300、0.179，且均呈空间正相关（均有P<0.05），表明2014-2016年山东省布鲁氏菌病有明显的空间聚集性；全局Moran's I逐年降低（均有P<0.05）。说明2014-2016年山东省布鲁氏菌病全局空间聚集性呈下降趋势。局部空间自相关分析结果显示，"高-高"聚集区主要集中在山东省中部和北部地区，与高发病率地区空间分布一致；东部沿海地区则表现为"低-低"聚集。结论 山东省2014-2016年布鲁氏菌病发病率呈逐年上升趋势，地区间布病发病率水平并非随机分布，存在空间正相关和明显的空间聚集性，高聚集区主要分布在山东省中部和北部地区，需重点防控。
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the spatial distribution and spatial clustering of human brucellosis in Shandong Province from 2014 to 2016, and to provide scientific evidence for developing the targeted strategies and measures for the prevention and control of human brucellosis. Methods Based on GeoDA1.8.16 software, the global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis were used to analyze the data on human brucellosis in Shandong Province during the period of 2014-2016. Results A total of 10 630 brucellosis cases were reported during 2014-2016 in Shandong Province, and the incidence increased from 2.91/100 000(2 845 cases) to 4.03/100 000(4 009 cases),with the annual average incidence of 3.59/100 000,and showing an increasing trend on annual incidence (χternd2=172.87, P<0.001).The epidemic range of human brucellosis distributed in 136 counties (cities or areas). The spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that Global Moran's I index for the incidence were 0.323, 0.300 and 0.179 respectively, and were all positive (all P<0.05), suggesting that there was a significant spatial clustering of human brucellosis during 2014-2016. Global Moran's I index decreased year by year (all P<0.05), suggesting decreased spatial clustering of human brucellosis during 2014-2016.The local autocorrelation analysis showed that high-high clustering areas were mainly distributed in the central and northern parts of Shandong, with consistent high morbidity. Counties or districts that located in the eastern coastal parts of Shandong presented the low-low relation. Conclusions The annual reported brucellosis incidence increased year by year in Shandong during 2014-2016, and the incidence of human brucellosis was non-randomly distributed. A positive spatial correlation and significant spatial clustering were found in the distribution of human brucellosis and the high-high clustered areas mainly distributed in the central and northern areas of Shandong, indicating that it is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control efforts in these areas.
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