Spatiotemporal characteristics of HIV/AIDS in Guangdong province, 2007-2017
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摘要: 目的 了解2007-2017年广东省艾滋病病毒感染者(human immunodeficiency virus,HIV)和艾滋病病人(acquired immunodeficiency syndrome,AIDS)的流行特征及其时空分布特征,为制定防治策略提供依据。方法 以2007-2017年广东省各县(区)历年报告的HIV/AIDS为基础,用OpenGeoDa 1.8软件进行全局空间自相关和局部空间自相关分析,SaTScan 9.4进行时空扫描分析,用Arcgis 10.4进行可视化展示。结果 广东省2007-2017年共新发现HIV/AIDS 76 476例,病例的空间分布范围逐年扩大并且局部地区分布集中。各年全局Moran's I 0.25~0.43之间(均有P<0.05),说明2007-2017年存在全局空间自相关。时空扫描统计分析显示深圳市6个县(区)为一类聚集区域,阳江市、罗定市等6个县(区)为二类聚集区域,广州市、佛山等19个县(区)为三类聚集区域(均有P<0.05)。结论 艾滋病发病的高高聚集区域逐渐覆盖珠三角大部分县(区),阳江市及周边地区逐步退出高高聚集区,提示珠三角区域为广东省近几年艾滋病防控重点区域。Abstract: Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics and spatial and temporal distribution of HIV/AIDS in Guangdong province, so as to provide scientific evidence for the prevention and control of AIDS. Methods Newly reported HIV/AIDS data from 2007 to 2017 in Guangdong were collected from HIV/AIDS Comprehensive Information Management System. OpenGeoDa 1.8 software was used for autocorrelation analysis, SaTScan 9.4 software was used for statistical analysis of spatial scanning, and finally geographic information system was used for visualization with Arcgis 10.4 software. Results 76 476 HIV/AIDS cases were totally reported in Guangdong from 2007 to 2017, the scope of spatial distribution on HIV/AIDS expanded annually and concentrated in certain areas. Global Moran's I index was between 0.25 and 0.34 annually(P<0.05). Spatial and temporal scan analysis revealed that three categories including Shenzhen city (six counties), Yangjiang city and Luoding city(six counties), Guangzhou city, Foshan city, Dongguan city, Jiangmen city and Zhongshan city(nineteen counties) were the main spatial and temporal cluster in area in 2007-2017(P<0.05). Conclusions The "high-high" clustering areas gradually covered most counties in Pearl River Delta(PRD), and Yangjiang and its surrounding areas gradually withdrew from the "high-high" clustering areas, suggesting that the PRD region was the key area for prevention and control of AIDS in Guangdong province in recent years.
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Key words:
- HIV/AIDS /
- Spatial autocorrelation /
- Space-time scan /
- Space-time cluster
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