Spatiotemporal characteristics of HIV/AIDS epidemic in Dehong Dai and Jingpo Autonomous Prefecture
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摘要:
目的 了解德宏傣族景颇族自治州(以下简称“德宏州”)1989-2018年不同乡镇人类免疫缺陷病毒(human immunodeficiency virus, HIV)感染者和艾滋病(acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, AIDS)病人的时空分布特征。 方法 以1989-2018年德宏州辖区所有乡镇(50个)历年报告的本地HIV/AIDS为对象, 对30年间各年度报告疫情数据进行描述性分析; 建立地理信息数据库, 在地理信息系统ArcGIS 10.2软件进行可视化展示。 结果 1989-2018年德宏州50个乡镇报告的本地HIV/AIDS共15 752例, 至2003年病例的空间分布已经覆盖100%的乡镇; 2004年报告HIV/AIDS共2 252例, 为30年中报告最多的1年; 2010年下降至813例, 2014年下降至456例, 2015年下降至393例, 2018年下降至297例。2018年底累计存活8 848例, 历年的现存活比直线上升, 报告发病率逐年下降。 结论 德宏州HIV/AIDS疫情存在时空上的聚集性, 以靠近中缅边境乡镇疫情出现最早也最严重; 近5年德宏州疫情总体得到有效控制。 Abstract:Objective To understand the spatial and temporal distribution of human immunodeficiency virus(HIV) and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome(AIDS) in Dehong Dai and Jingpo Autonomous Prefecture(hereinafter referred to as "Dehong Prefecture") from 1989 to 2018. Methods Descriptive analysis and visualization was conducted based on annual reported HIV/AIDS cases from all 50 townships Dehong. ArcGIS 10.2 software was used. Results HIV/AIDS had spread through all 50 towns in Dehong by year 2003. 15 752 HIV/AIDS cases were reported in Dehong Prefecture from 1989 to 2018. However, the number of newly reported HIV/AIDS cases tend to decline, with 2 252, 813, 456, 393 and 297 cases reported in the year 2004, 2010, 2014, 2015 and 2018, respectively. Additionally, analysis suggested a decrease in mortality among HIV-infected patients, and a total of 8 848 cases were still living with HIV by the end of 2018. Conclusions Analysis reveals spatial variation in HIV/AIDS epidemics at township level, and indicates the serious HIV epidemic first spread through the areas bordering Myanmar. The efforts to put HIV epidemic under control are paying off in the past five years. -
图 1 德宏州2004-2018各年度报告HIV感染例数
Figure 1. Number of case of HIV infection reported in Dehong Prefecture in 2004-2018
图 2 1989-2018年德宏州乡镇各年度报告本地HIV/AIDS病例数
Figure 2. Annual number of reported local township HIV/AIDS cases in Dehong Prefecture from 1989 to 2018
图 3 1989-2018年德宏州乡镇各年度报告本地HIV/AIDS截止2018年底的现存活例数
Figure 3. Survivals of annually reported local HIV/AIDS cases from 1989 to 2018 in Dehong Prefecture at the end of 2018
图 4 2004-2018年期间不同时点德宏州各乡镇HIV报告发病率
Figure 4. Township incidence of reported HIV infection in Dehong Prefecture during 2004-2018
表 1 德宏州不同年度HIV报告发病率的全局Moran’s I指数及检验
Table 1. Global Moran's I index and test of HIV reported incidence in different years in Dehong Prefecture
年份 Moran’s I指数 Z得分 P值 2004 0.501 5 5.829 3 < 0.001 2005 0.425 8 5.019 1 < 0.001 2007 0.410 2 4.764 9 < 0.001 2010 0.090 8 1.575 0 0.115 2011 0.149 7 2.047 7 0.040 2012 0.200 9 2.749 1 0.006 2013 0.141 7 1.964 7 0.049 2018 0.149 7 2.047 7 0.041 
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