2004—2018年湖北省丙型肝炎流行特征与趋势

吴景涛; 宇传华; 王雷; 胡樱

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.04.016

2004—2018年湖北省丙型肝炎流行特征与趋势

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.04.016

吴景涛¹,
宇传华¹,
王雷²,
胡樱^1, ,

1.
430071 武汉, 武汉大学健康学院全球健康研究中心
2.
430079 武汉, 湖北省疾病预防控制中心传染病防治研究所

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(81773552)

详细信息

通讯作者:
胡樱, E-mail:yingerhu2011@qq.com

中图分类号: R181
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2019-11-08
- 修回日期: 2020-01-20
- 刊出日期: 2020-04-10

Epidemiological characteristics and trends of hepatitis C in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018

1.
Global Health Institute, School of Health Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, China
2.
Institute of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Hubei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan 430079, China

Funds: National Natural Science Foundation of China(81773552)

More Information

Corresponding author: HU Ying, E-mail:yingerhu2011@qq.com

摘要

摘要: 目的分析2004-2018年湖北省丙型肝炎(简称丙肝)的流行特征, 掌握丙肝发病状况, 为丙肝防控提供科学的意见和建议。方法研究收集传染病报告信息管理系统中丙肝报告病例的数据, 对其进行描述性分析并使用时间序列模型进行分析预测。结果丙肝发病率呈持续增加趋势, 从2004年的1.82/10⁵增加到2018年的18.51/10⁵, 年平均增长率为18.01%。各年龄段丙肝发病率随年份的增加整体呈上升趋势, 在同一年份, 发病率随年龄段的增加而出现先上升后下降的趋势, 在60~70岁年龄段达到顶峰。丙肝的新发患者中排行前三的职业依次为农民、家务及待业、离退休人员, 其总占比超过80%。通过时间序列模型预测, 如果不采取有效控制措施, 5年后丙肝发生率可超过24.88/10⁵。结论丙肝发病率持续升高, 发病有较明显的人群、空间分布特点, 需要密切关注并且针对性地采取有效措施, 减少疾病的发生和感染。
- 丙型肝炎 /
- 流行特征 /
- 预测
Abstract: Objective This study aims to know the incidence of hepatitis C and provide scientific opinions and suggestions for prevention and control of hepatitis C through analyzing the characteristics of hepatitis C in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018. Methods Data of hepatitis C reported cases in the infectious disease report information management system were collected, analyzed and predicted by time series model. Results The incidence of hepatitis C continued to increase, from 1.82/10⁵ in 2004 to 18.51/10⁵ in 2018, with an average annual growth rate of 18.01%. The incidence of hepatitis C in all age groups increased from 2004 to 2018. In the same year, the incidence rate increased initially and then decreased with the elder age group. The peak was in 60-70 age group. Among the new diagnosed patients with hepatitis C, the top three occupations were farmers, housework and unemployed, retired people, accounting for more than 80% of the total. According to the prediction of time series model, the incidence of hepatitis C could exceed 24.88/10⁵ after 5 years if no effective control measures were taken. Conclusions The incidence of hepatitis C is still rising, and it has significant population and spatial distribution pattern. It is necessary to pay attention and take effective measures to reduce the incidence of new infections and diseases onset.
- Hepatitis C /
- Epidemiologic characteristic /
- Prediction

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图 1 2004-2018年湖北省丙肝发病率变化趋势

Figure 1. Trends in the incidence of hepatitis C in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018

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图 2 2004-2018年湖北省丙肝报告病例年龄分布情况

Figure 2. Age distribution of reported cases of Hepatitis C in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018

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图 3 不同职业人群丙肝患者占比

Figure 3. Proportion of hepatitis C patients in different occupational groups

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图 4-a 2004、2010、2014、2018年湖北省丙肝报告发病率地区分布

Figure 4-a. Regional distribution of hepatitis C reported incidence in Hubei Province in 2004, 2010, 2014 and 2018

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图 4-b 2004-2018年五市丙肝发病率变化趋势

Figure 4-b. Trends in the incidence of hepatitis C in five cities from 2004 to 2018

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图 5 2004-2018年丙肝发病率自相关(ACF)图和偏自相关(PACF)图

Figure 5. Autocorrelation (ACF) and partial autocorrelation (PACF) of hepatitis C incidence in 2004-2018

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图 6 2004-2023年丙肝发病率ARIMA(1, 1, 0)模型预测图

Figure 6. ARIMA (1, 1, 0) model prediction of hepatitis C incidence in 2004-2023

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表 1 2004-2018年丙肝发病和死亡情况

Table 1. The incidence and the mortality of hepatitis C from 2004 to 2018

年份	发病数(例)	发病率(/10⁵)	死亡数(例)	死亡率(/10⁵)
2004	1 095	1.823	6	0.001
2005	1 518	2.667	4	0.007
2006	2 249	3.939	10	0.018
2007	3 259	5.725	5	0.009
2008	3 866	6.784	7	0.012
2009	4 798	8.401	4	0.007
2010	5 009	8.757	3	0.005
2011	6 092	10.643	3	0.005
2012	6 350	11.028	10	0.017
2013	7 350	12.719	9	0.016
2014	7 896	13.616	5	0.009
2015	8 736	15.021	0	< 0.001
2016	9 453	16.958	2	0.003
2017	10 419	17.704	3	0.005
2018	10 926	18.512	4	0.007

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