2010―2021年安徽省流行性腮腺炎的时空流行特征

刘丽莎; 张宁; 李轩; 段春元; 贾昕婧; 张文义; 贾瑞忠; 郭金鹏; 王斌冰; 王勇

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.02.004

2010―2021年安徽省流行性腮腺炎的时空流行特征

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.02.004

刘丽莎^{1, 2},
张宁³,
李轩^{1, 2},
段春元^{2, 4},
贾昕婧^{2, 4},
张文义^{1, 2, 4},
贾瑞忠²,
郭金鹏²,
王斌冰³,
王勇^{1, 2, 4, ,}

1.
安徽医科大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计系，合肥 230032
2.
中国人民解放军疾病预防控制中心应急处置大队，北京 100071
3.
安徽省疾病预防控制中心免疫预防科，合肥 230601
4.
中国医科大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室，沈阳 110122

刘丽莎和张宁为共同第一作者

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金 12031010

国家科技重大专项 2018ZX10713003

详细信息

通讯作者:
王勇，E-mail：ywang7508@sina.com

中图分类号: R512.1
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2023-07-27
- 修回日期: 2023-10-24
- 网络出版日期: 2024-03-30
- 刊出日期: 2024-02-10

Spatiotemporal and epidemiological characteristics of mumps in Anhui Province, 2010-2021

LIU Lisha^{1, 2},
ZHANG Ning³,
LI Xuan^{1, 2},
DUAN Chunyuan^{2, 4},
JIA Xinjing^{2, 4},
ZHANG Wenyi^{1, 2, 4},
JIA Ruizhong²,
GUO Jinpeng²,
WANG Binbing³,
WANG Yong^{1, 2, 4
, ,}

1.
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230032, China
2.
Emergency Response, Chinese People′s Liberation Army Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100071, China
3.
Immunization Planning Institute, Anhui Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hefei 230601, China
4.
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang 110122, China

LIU Lisha and ZHANG Ning contributed equally to this article

Funds:

National Natural Science Foundation of China 12031010

National Science and Techrolclogy Major Poject 2018ZX10713003

More Information

Corresponding author: WANG Yong, E-mail: ywang7508@sina.com

摘要

摘要: 目的分析2010―2021年安徽省流行性腮腺炎(流腮)三间分布及时空聚集特征，了解其流行规律并为相关部门制定预防控制策略提供依据。方法从安徽省疾病预防控制中心收集2010―2021年安徽省流腮病例数据，利用ArcGIS 10.8、Geoda 1.20、SaTScan 10.1.2等软件对安徽省流腮进行描述性流行病学、空间自相关及时空扫描分析。结果 2010―2021年安徽省流腮的年均发病率为23.08/10万，有2个发病流行高峰期，发病率随年份呈下降趋势(χ² =10 287.75, P < 0.001)。男女性别比为1.67∶1，5~＜15岁组儿童(68.91%)和学生(67.89%)病例数占比最高，且每年第14~28周和第46周~次年第4周是流腮的2个季节性高峰。空间自相关分析结果显示，除2012、2014和2015年，其余年份均呈空间正相关性(均P < 0.05)。时空扫描分析共形成十类聚集区，其中一类聚集区域分布在26个区/县，聚集时间为2011―2013年，聚集半径为144 km，对数似然比(log likelihood ratio, LLR)值为7 803.80。结论安徽省流腮发病率呈周期性流行和下降趋势，今后应继续加强对易感人群及热点地区的疾病监测和预警，以预防和控制流腮流行。
- 流行性腮腺炎 /
- 流行特征 /
- 空间自相关分析 /
- 时空扫描分析
Abstract: Objective This study aimed to analyze the temporal, spatial, and population distribution and spatiotemporal clustering characteristics of mumps in Anhui Province from 2010 to 2021, understand its epidemiological pattern, and to provide a basis for the development of prevention and control strategies. Methods The reported cases of mumps in Anhui Province from 2010 to 2021 were collected from the Anhui Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention. ArcGIS 10.8, Geoda 1.20, and SaTScan 10.1.2 were used to conduct descriptive epidemiological, spatial auto-correlation, and spatiotemporal scanning analyses of mumps in Anhui Province. Results The annual average incidence of mumps was 23.08/100 000 in Anhui Province during 2010-2021, with two peak epidemic periods. The chi-square trend test for incidence showed a downward trend with the years (χ² =10 287.75, P < 0.001). The sex ratio of males to females was 1.67∶1. The highest proportions of cases were aged 5- < 15 years (68.91%) and students (67.89%). Additionally, the two seasonal peaks of mumps occurred from weeks 14 to 28 and from week 46 to week 4 of the following year. The spatial auto-correlation analysis results showed that except for 2012, 2014, and 2015, the Moran′s I indexes indicated positive spatial correlations (P < 0.05). The spatiotemporal scan analysis identified a total of ten clusters, of which the first clustering area was distributed in 26 districts and counties of Anhui Province, with a clustering period of 2011―2013, a radius of 144 km and a log likelihood ratio (LLR) value of 7 803.80. Conclusions Based on the findings, there is a cyclical pattern and declining trend of mumps in Anhui Province. In the future, disease surveillance and early warnings for susceptible populations and hotspots should continue to be strengthened to prevent and control the prevalence of mumps.
- Mumps /
- Epidemiological characteristics /
- Spatial auto-correlation analysis /
- Spatiotemporal scan analysis

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图 1 安徽省2010―2021年流行性腮腺炎报告病例的时间分布图

Figure 1. Temporal distribution of the mumps cases in Anhui Province from 2010 to 2021

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表 1 2010―2021年安徽省流行性腮腺炎流行病学特征

Table 1. Epidemiological characteristics of mumps in Anhui Province, 2010-2021

变量 Variable	年均发病率/10万^-1 Annual incidence rate /100 000^-1	占比/% Proportion /%	变量 Variable	年均发病率/10万^-1 Annual incidence rate /100 000^-1	占比/% Proportion /%
性别 Gender			年龄组/岁 Age group/years
男 Male	14.44	62.54	40~ < 45	2.04	0.77
女 Female	8.64	37.46	45~ < 50	1.52	0.59
年龄组/岁 Age group/years			≥50	1.02	1.32
0~ < 5	39.07	12.36	职业 Occupation
5~ < 10	130.39	37.59	幼托儿童 Preschood children	―	12.90
10~ < 15	130.18	31.32	散居儿童 Diaspora children	―	10.81
15~ < 20	34.14	10.70	学生 Students	―	67.89
20~ < 25	5.31	1.82	民工 Migrant workers	―	0.61
25~ < 30	4.67	1.33	农民、牧民及渔民 Farmers, pastoralists, and fishermen	―	4.41
30~ < 35	4.02	1.17	离退人员、家务及待业 Retirees, domestic workers, and non-working	―	1.43
35~ < 40	2.95	1.02	其他 Others	―	1.94
注：“―”表示未获取职业人群的发病率结果。 Note: "―" means the results of prevalence are not available for the occupational group.

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表 2 2010―2021年安徽省流行性腮腺炎病例的地区分布情况

地区 District	发病率/10万^-1 Incidence rate /100 000^-1												年均发病率/10万^-1 Annual incidence rate /100 000^-1
地区 District	2010年 year	2011年 year	2012年 year	2013年 year	2014年 year	2015年 year	2016年 year	2017年 year	2018年 year	2019年 year	2020年 year	2021年 year	年均发病率/10万^-1 Annual incidence rate /100 000^-1
黄山 Huangshan	142.68	77.61	107.15	54.16	34.72	17.40	17.33	34.90	27.22	14.43	18.71	34.72	49.05
铜陵 Tongling	74.04	131.22	62.76	58.25	52.17	13.53	10.62	8.33	11.54	10.85	12.43	52.17	39.95
阜阳 Fuyang	22.88	32.75	24.11	29.07	21.75	27.07	31.59	78.26	45.70	11.43	11.29	21.75	29.17
六安 Lu′an	50.25	51.22	19.86	31.40	46.36	14.35	16.01	20.40	25.16	11.33	10.83	46.36	27.98
淮北 Huaibei	24.07	76.40	44.94	16.44	20.43	19.87	15.27	13.47	13.71	11.73	11.83	20.43	24.05
亳州 Bozhou	19.11	55.38	16.13	6.05	16.31	15.06	23.45	53.86	56.23	10.49	8.65	16.31	23.74
宣城 Xuancheng	34.78	57.43	18.65	11.15	9.30	10.69	7.84	8.95	9.97	7.18	6.96	9.30	23.43
池州 Chizhou	58.40	30.63	68.42	33.52	10.06	8.98	9.56	7.80	8.95	6.87	7.97	10.06	23.10
滁州 Chuzhou	25.85	57.62	85.71	11.00	6.70	6.05	5.19	10.45	17.77	5.21	5.32	6.70	20.70
蚌埠 Bengbu	13.49	64.34	58.83	14.70	8.75	10.21	10.48	10.72	29.72	10.97	8.68	8.75	20.63
安庆 Anqing	22.43	75.24	72.27	12.45	8.98	6.28	4.92	5.79	12.96	7.41	9.34	8.98	20.28
宿州 Suzhou	14.72	21.13	25.76	11.28	7.75	7.49	10.00	25.01	80.68	7.07	5.93	7.75	19.39
合肥 Hefei	19.73	33.98	38.45	14.50	11.11	10.82	16.70	14.31	16.07	11.81	13.54	11.11	17.91
芜湖 Wuhu	40.59	26.95	20.02	10.72	11.71	10.28	10.84	11.58	20.89	11.46	11.69	11.71	17.67
淮南 Huainan	18.04	19.88	50.62	18.54	41.45	4.54	4.98	7.48	6.48	5.19	4.58	41.45	17.56
马鞍山 Maanshan	30.60	30.83	24.23	10.02	10.40	8.35	8.79	13.55	20.84	15.46	11.39	10.40	16.35

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表 3 2010―2021年安徽省流行性腮腺炎全局空间自相关分析

Table 3. Global autocorrelation analysis of mumps in Anhui Province, 2010-2021

年份 Year	均值 Mean	标准差 Standard deviation	Moran′s I	Z值 value	P值 value	年份 Year	均值 Mean	标准差 Standard deviation	Moran′s I	Z值 value	P值 value
2010	-0.009 9	0.062 0	0.136 4	2.360 2	0.024 0	2016	-0.009 7	0.067 7	0.288 7	4.396 6	0.002 0
2011	-0.008 4	0.064 8	0.373 5	5.892 0	0.001 0	2017	-0.009 1	0.071 5	0.343 6	4.930 5	0.001 0
2012	-0.007 8	0.067 0	0.093 0	1.503 2	0.065 0	2018	-0.008 6	0.053 7	0.151 2	2.975 8	0.018 0
2013	-0.007 2	0.065 2	0.284 5	4.475 8	0.001 0	2019	-0.007 4	0.068 2	0.334 2	5.008 8	0.004 0
2014	-0.008 0	0.065 4	0.057 1	0.994 4	0.140 0	2020	-0.012 9	0.069 8	0.191 6	2.928 3	0.004 0
2015	-0.007 6	0.051 8	0.018 1	0.496 1	0.208 0	2021	-0.013 3	0.073 5	0.205 3	2.975 0	0.005 0

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表 4 2010―2021年安徽省流行性腮腺炎时空扫描分析

Table 4. Spatiotemporal scan analysis of mumps in Anhui Province from 2010 to 2021

聚集区 Clusters	聚集时间/年 Cluster time /Year	覆盖区县数量 Number of covered districts/counties	半径 Radiu /km	实际病例数 Number of actual cases	期望病例数 Number of expected cases	RR值 value	LLR值 value	P值 value
一类 Class one	2011―2013	26	144.00	16 809	5 533.48	3.27	7 803.80	< 0.001
二类 Class two	2018―2019	1	0.00	5 794	638.45	9.37	7 703.96	< 0.001
三类 Class three	2019	3	39.57	4 671	547.40	8.75	5 942.29	< 0.001
四类 Class four	2010―2015	5	64.69	10 589	3 773.85	2.93	4 253.93	< 0.001
五类 Class five	2010	1	0.00	2 292	200.40	11.58	3 506.84	< 0.001
六类 Class six	2016―2021	12	61.00	4 113	10 952.44	0.36	2 958.76	< 0.001
七类 Class seven	2012―2013	3	21.34	2 932	464.19	6.41	2 954.64	< 0.001
八类 Class eight	2016―2021	4	48.96	790	3 814.72	0.20	1 808.63	< 0.001
九类 Class nine	2018―2019	1	0.00	2 360	502.56	4.75	1 803.18	< 0.001
十类 Class ten	2016―2021	7	65.63	3 536	7 987.23	0.43	1 631.61	< 0.001

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