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大气氧化性污染物与气温对我国某地区人群疾病死亡影响的交互作用研究

刘英 刘嘉彤 王金霞 虎勇 董学昊 王发选 张亚娟

刘英, 刘嘉彤, 王金霞, 虎勇, 董学昊, 王发选, 张亚娟. 大气氧化性污染物与气温对我国某地区人群疾病死亡影响的交互作用研究[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2024, 28(9): 1043-1052. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.09.009
引用本文: 刘英, 刘嘉彤, 王金霞, 虎勇, 董学昊, 王发选, 张亚娟. 大气氧化性污染物与气温对我国某地区人群疾病死亡影响的交互作用研究[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2024, 28(9): 1043-1052. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.09.009
LIU Ying, LIU Jiatong, WANG Jinxia, HU Yong, DONG Xuehao, WANG Faxuan, ZHANG Yajuan. Interactive effects of oxidant air pollutants and temperature on disease mortality in a region of China[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2024, 28(9): 1043-1052. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.09.009
Citation: LIU Ying, LIU Jiatong, WANG Jinxia, HU Yong, DONG Xuehao, WANG Faxuan, ZHANG Yajuan. Interactive effects of oxidant air pollutants and temperature on disease mortality in a region of China[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2024, 28(9): 1043-1052. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.09.009

大气氧化性污染物与气温对我国某地区人群疾病死亡影响的交互作用研究

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.09.009
基金项目: 

宁夏自然科学基金 2022AAC03142

详细信息
    通讯作者:

    张亚娟,E-mail: zhyj830515@126.com

  • 中图分类号: R122.7

Interactive effects of oxidant air pollutants and temperature on disease mortality in a region of China

Funds: 

Ningxia Natural Science Foundation Project 2022AAC03142

More Information
  • 摘要:   目的   探究大气氧化性污染物与气温的单独效应,以及两者交互作用分别对我国某地区呼吸、循环系统疾病死亡的影响。   方法   使用2014―2018年中国某地区188 039例人群死亡数据、大气污染物日均浓度资料和同期的气象资料,采用基于Poisson分布的广义相加模型(generalized additive model, GAM)及分布滞后非线性模型(distributed lag non-linear model, DLNM)分别探讨大气氧化性污染物和气温对人群因循环、呼吸系统疾病死亡的影响,采用双变量响应面模型和分层法探究两者交互作用对循环、呼吸系统疾病死亡的影响。   结果   O3、NO2和Ox每增加10 μg/m3对循环系统疾病死亡的累积效应最大值分别为0.82%(95% CI: 0.30%~1.34%)、1.58%(95% CI: 0.28%~2.90%)和1.11%(95% CI: 0.51%~1.72%),对呼吸系统疾病死亡的累积效应最大值分别为0.53%(95% CI: 0.31%~1.37%)、2.66%(95% CI: 1.07%~4.27%)和1.22%(95% CI: 0.22%~2.23%)。高温和低温对2种疾病死亡影响的差异较大,高温效应即时,低温效应滞后。使用交互作用相对超额危险度(relative excess risk due to interaction, RERI)评估交互作用的大小和方向,交互作用研究结果表明,高温与高浓度的NO2(RERI=0.118, 95% CI: 0.031~0.206)对人群循环系统疾病死亡风险有协同放大作用,低温与高浓度的O3(RERI=0.127, 95% CI: 0.104~0.150)、和Ox(RERI=0.025, 95% CI: 0.002~0.049)对人群呼吸系统疾病死亡风险有协同放大作用。   结论   高温、低温和大气氧化性污染物(O3、NO2和Ox)均能增加人群循环、呼吸系统疾病的死亡风险,高温与高浓度的NO2、低温与高浓度的O3、Ox对人群循环和呼吸系统疾病死亡的风险有协同作用。
  • 图  1  2014―2018年中国某地区每日死亡数据、气象因素及大气污染数据时间序列图

    Figure  1.  Time series of daily mortality data, meteorological factors and air pollution data for a specific region in China from 2014 to 2018

    图  2  大气污染数据和气象因素的Spearman秩相关分析

    a: P<0.05; b: P<0.01; c: P<0.001; d: P<0.000 1。

    Figure  2.  Results of Spearman rank correlation analysis between air pollution data and meteorological factors

    图  3  2014―2018年中国某地区大气氧化性污染物每增加10 μg/m3对人群因循环系统疾病和呼吸系统疾病死亡的超额风险

    A: 循环系统疾病死亡;B: 呼吸系统疾病死亡。

    Figure  3.  Excess risk of circulatory disease and respiratory disease mortality related with per 10 μg/m3 increase in oxidative pollutants in a region of China, 2014-2018

    A: death from circulatory diseases; B: death from respiratory diseases.

    图  4  2014―2018年中国某地区气温对人群因相关疾病的死亡相对风险3D图及等高线图

    A:循环系统疾病死亡;B:呼吸系统疾病死亡;C:循环系统疾病死亡;D:呼吸系统疾病死亡。

    Figure  4.  3D plot and contour map of the relative risk of temperature on population mortality from related diseases in a region of China, 2014-2018

    A: death from circulatory diseases; B: death from respiratory diseases; C: death from circulatory diseases; D: death from respiratory diseases.

    图  5  2014―2018年中国某地区气温对人群因相关疾病的死亡相对风险的累积效应

    A:对循环系统疾病死亡1~3 d的累积效应;B:对呼吸系统疾病死亡1~3 d的累积效应。

    Figure  5.  Cumulative effect of the relative risk of temperature on population mortality from related diseases in a region of China, 2014-2018

    A: cumulative effect on 1-3 days of death from circulatory diseases; B: cumulative effect on 1-3 days of death from respiratory diseases.

    图  6  2014―2018年中国某地区大气氧化性污染物与气温对人群因循环、呼吸系统疾病死亡的交互作用

    A:循环系统疾病死亡;B:循环系统疾病死亡;C:循环系统疾病死亡;D:呼吸系统疾病死亡;E:呼吸系统疾病死亡;F:呼吸系统疾病死亡。

    Figure  6.  Results of the interaction between atmospheric oxidative pollutants and temperature on population mortality due to circulatory and respiratory system diseases in a region of China, 2014-2018

    A: death from circulatory diseases; B: death from circulatory diseases; C: death from circulatory diseases; D: death from respiratory diseases; E: death from respiratory diseases; F: death from respiratory diseases.

    表  1  2014―2018年中国某地区每日死亡数据、每气象因素及大气污染数据描述性统计

    Table  1.   Descriptive statistics of daily death, daily average meteorological factors and pollutants in a region of China, from 2014 to 2018

    变量Variable 人数Number of people x±s 最小值Min M(P25, P75) 最大值Max
    每日死亡数据Daily death data
      总体死亡Total deaths 188 039 102.98±22.08 15.00 100.00(89.00, 115.00) 185.00
    病因别Etiology
      呼吸系统疾病Circulatory disease 25 971 14.22±6.20 0 13.00(10.00, 17.00) 44.00
      循环系统疾病Respiratory disease 56 693 31.05±9.34 4.00 30.00(25.00, 37.00) 75.00
    性别Gender
      女性Female 82 119 44.97±11.39 5.00 44.00(38.00, 51.00) 92.00
      男性Male 105 920 58.01±12.77 6.00 57.00(50.00, 65.00) 112.00
    年龄组/岁Age group/years
      <65 41 433 22.69±5.63 1.00 23.00(19.00, 26.00) 43.00
      ≥65 146 606 80.29±19.69 13.00 78.00(68.00, 91.00) 158.00
    每日平均污染因素Daily average pollution factors/(μg·m-3)
      O3~8 h 94.83±41.29 6.00 90.00(65.00, 120.75) 249.00
      SO2 12.94±7.03 4.00 11.00(8.00, 15.00) 73.00
      NO2 39.19±17.66 6.00 36.00(26.00, 51.00) 122.00
      CO 834.08±240.25 400.00 800.00(700.00, 1 000.00) 2 100.00
      PM10 63.09±36.27 7.00 55.00(38.00, 79.00) 282.00
      PM2.5 39.74±25.13 4.00 34.00(23.00, 49.00) 219.00
      Ox 75.90±26.49 17.70 71.97(57.23, 91.26) 182.32
    每日平均气象因素Daily average meteorological factors
      平均气温Daily average temperature/℃ 17.51±8.50 -4.50 18.40(10.20, 24.40) 32.90
      日最高气温Daily maximum temperature/℃ 21.97±8.74 -2.30 23.15(14.70, 28.70) 39.20
      日最低气温Daily minimum temperature/℃ 13.82±8.82 -7.60 14.50(10.20, 24.40) 29.40
      相对湿度Average relative humidity/% 79.94±11.36 23.00 81.00(73.00, 88.00) 100.00
      平均气压Average air pressure/hPa 1 015.78±9.62 892.00 1 015.70(1 008.50, 1 022.88) 1 039.70
      平均风速Average wind speed/(m·s-1) 1.98±0.94 0.10 1.80(1.40, 2.40) 12.00
      降水量Precipitation/mm 35.43±123.43 0 0.00(0.00, 13.00) 2 762.00
      日照时数Sunshine hours/h 26.98±36.05 0 8.10(0.00, 51.00) 127.00
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  2014―2018年中国某地区大气氧化性污染物与气温对循环及呼吸系统死亡风险的交互作用

    Table  2.   Interaction between atmospheric oxidative pollutants and temperature on circulatory and respiratory mortality risk in a region of China, 2014-2018

    温度Temperature 污染水平Pollutant level 循环系统死亡Circulatory system mortality 呼吸系统死亡Respiratory system mortality
    O3 NO2 Ox O3 NO2 Ox
    中温Mild 低Low 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
    高High 0.968(0.941~0.995) 1.024(0.990~1.057) 1.001(0.977~1.024) 0.952(0.918~0.986) 1.059(1.023~1.094) 0.967(0.935~0.999)
    高温High 低Low 1.053(0.946~1.159) 1.071(1.003~1.138) 1.090(1.009~1.170) 1.003(0.854~1.151) 1.030(0.938~1.122) 1.030(0.919~1.142)
    高High 1.049(0.975~1.123) 1.213(1.025~1.400) 1.068(0.985~1.150) 1.000(0.898~1.102) 1.194(0.937~1.451) 0.998(0.883~1.112)
    RERI 0.028(-0.032~0.087) 0.118(0.031~0.206) -0.023(-0.045~0.001) 0.045(-0.035~0.125) 0.105(-0.025~0.235) 0.000(-0.029~0.029)
    低温Low 低Low 1.091(1.026~1.157) 1.088(0.990~1.187) 1.103(1.031~1.174) 1.046(0.963~1.129) 1.134(1.012~1.256) 1.058(0.968~1.149)
    高High 1.045(0.932~1.159) 1.103(1.031~1.176) 1.076(0.998~1.155) 1.125(0.985~1.265) 1.112(1.025~1.199) 1.051(0.952~1.150)
    RERI -0.014(-0.035~0.007) -0.008(-0.051~0.068) -0.027(-0.043~0.011) 0.127(0.104~0.150) -0.081(-0.151~0.011) 0.025(0.002~0.049)
    注:RERI, 交互作用相对超额危险度;中温,5%~95%分位数;低温,<5%分位数;高温,>95%分位数;污染物低水平,≤中位数;污染物高水平,>中位数。
    ①高温-高污染;②低温-高污染;③P<0.05。
    Note: RERI, relative excess risk due to interaction; Mild temperature, P5-P95; low temperature, <P5; high temperature, >P95; low pollutant level, ≤median; high pollutant level, >median.
    ① High temperature-high pollutant level; ② Low temperature-high pollutant level; ③P<0.05.
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  2014―2018年中国某地区大气氧化性污染物每增加10 μg/m3引起相关疾病超额风险改变的敏感性分析结果

    Table  3.   Sensitivity analysis of changes in excess risk of diseases associated with each 10 μg/m3 increase in atmospheric oxidative pollutants in a region of China, 2014-2018

    不同模型参数Model parameter 循环系统死亡Circulatory system mortality 呼吸系统死亡Respiratory system mortality
    O3 NO2 Ox O3 NO2 Ox
    v=7 0.82(0.30~1.34) 1.46(0.26~2.69) 1.11(0.51~1.72) 0.40(-0.29~1.10) 2.66(1.07~4.27) 1.12(0.31~1.94)
    v=5 0.96(0.15~1.47) 1.75(0.57~2.94) 1.32(0.73~1.91) 0.82(0.13~1.52) 2.86(1.32~4.41) 1.52(0.72~2.32)
    v=6 1.00(0.49~1.51) 1.87(0.69~3.06) 1.38(0.79~1.97) 0.78(0.08~1.47) 3.07(1.54~4.61) 1.53(0.73~2.32)
    v=8 0.82(0.30~1.34) 1.07(-0.15~2.29) 1.01(0.40~1.61) 0.38(-0.32~1.07) 2.33(0.75~3.92) 1.00(0.19~1.81)
    v=9 0.81(0.30~1.32) 0.89(-0.35~2.13) 0.95(0.35~1.54) 0.46(-0.23~1.15) 2.15(0.53~3.77) 0.99(0.18~1.80)
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  2014―2018年中国某地区大气氧化性污染物每增加10 μg/m3引起相关疾病超额风险改变的双污染物模型

    Table  4.   Results of a two-pollutant model of excess risk change for diseases associated with each 10 μg/m3 increase in atmospheric oxidative pollutants in a region of China, 2014-2018

    污染物Pollutant 循环系统死亡Circulatory system mortality 呼吸系统死亡Respiratory system mortality
    O3 NO2 Ox O3 NO2 Ox
    单污染物模型One-pollutant 0.82(0.30~1.34) 1.47(0.26~2.69) 1.11(0.51~1.72) 0.40(-0.30~1.10) 2.66(1.07~4.27) 1.12(0.31~1.94)
    +PM10 0.82(0.30~1.34) 1.47(0.26~2.69) 1.11(0.51~1.72) 0.40(-0.30~1.10) 2.66(1.07~4.27) 1.12(0.31~1.94)
    +PM2.5 0.82(0.30~1.34) 1.47(0.26~2.69) 1.11(0.51~1.72) 0.31(-0.40~1.02) 2.77(1.08~4.49) 1.12(0.31~1.94)
    +SO2 0.81(0.29~1.34) 1.47(0.26~2.69) 1.11(0.51~1.72) 0.43(-0.28~1.15) 2.66(1.07~4.27) 1.08(0.25~1.91)
    +CO 0.83(0.31~1.35) 1.48(0.27~2.70) 1.13(0.52~1.73) 0.39(-0.31~1.09) 2.66(1.07~4.27) 1.11(0.30~1.93)
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2023-12-12
  • 修回日期:  2024-05-17
  • 网络出版日期:  2024-10-24
  • 刊出日期:  2024-09-10

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