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2030年山东省结直肠癌死亡负担预测及危险因素控制效果模拟

綦晓 姚雪 鹿子龙 楚洁 徐晓慧 郭晓雷 王金荣 王素珍

綦晓, 姚雪, 鹿子龙, 楚洁, 徐晓慧, 郭晓雷, 王金荣, 王素珍. 2030年山东省结直肠癌死亡负担预测及危险因素控制效果模拟[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2024, 28(9): 1061-1068. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.09.011
引用本文: 綦晓, 姚雪, 鹿子龙, 楚洁, 徐晓慧, 郭晓雷, 王金荣, 王素珍. 2030年山东省结直肠癌死亡负担预测及危险因素控制效果模拟[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2024, 28(9): 1061-1068. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.09.011
QI Xiao, YAO Xue, LU Zilong, CHU Jie, XU Xiaohui, GUO Xiaolei, WANG Jinrong, WANG Suzhen. Prediction of colorectal cancer mortality burden and simulation of the effectiveness of controlling risk factors in Shandong Province by 2030[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2024, 28(9): 1061-1068. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.09.011
Citation: QI Xiao, YAO Xue, LU Zilong, CHU Jie, XU Xiaohui, GUO Xiaolei, WANG Jinrong, WANG Suzhen. Prediction of colorectal cancer mortality burden and simulation of the effectiveness of controlling risk factors in Shandong Province by 2030[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2024, 28(9): 1061-1068. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.09.011

2030年山东省结直肠癌死亡负担预测及危险因素控制效果模拟

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.09.011
綦晓和姚雪为共同第一作者
基金项目: 

国家自然科学基金 81872719

山东省自然科学基金 ZR2023MH313

山东省医药卫生科技项目 202312050721

2024年潍坊市中医药科研立项项目(第二类) WFZYY2024-2-001

详细信息
    通讯作者:

    王素珍,E-mail: wangsz@sdsmu.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: R195

Prediction of colorectal cancer mortality burden and simulation of the effectiveness of controlling risk factors in Shandong Province by 2030

QI Xiao and YAO Xue contributed equally to this article
Funds: 

National Natural Science Foundation of China 81872719

Provincial Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province ZR2023MH313

Shandong Province Medical and Health Technology Project 202312050721

2024 Weifang Traditional Chinese Medicine Research Project (Category Ⅱ) WFZYY2024-2-001

More Information
  • 摘要:   目的   预测2030年山东省结直肠癌(colorectal cancer, CRC)的死亡负担,评估控制危险因素对减轻CRC死亡负担的效果。   方法   基于死亡风险与危险因素的相关性和比较风险评估理论,利用山东省危险因素监测数据和CRC死亡数据,结合WHO危险因素控制目标,设定不同的危险因素控制场景,采用比例变化模型估计2030年不同场景下CRC死亡情况。   结果   若危险因素暴露按自然趋势发展,2030年山东省>20岁人群CRC的死亡数和死亡率将比2013年分别增加47.68%和35.51%,标化死亡率和过早死亡概率将分别降低14.48%和10.10%。饮酒或BMI控制达标场景下,2030年山东省>20岁人群过早死亡概率将比2013年减少12.11%和11.02%。所有危险因素控制达标场景下,2030年山东省将避免413.24人死亡,过早死亡概率将降低13.14%。   结论   自然趋势下,2030年山东省>20岁人群CRC死亡数和死亡率将比2013年高,标化死亡率与过早死亡概率将下降。若所有危险因素控制达标,可降低CRC的负担,提示应加强控制饮酒和BMI管理等措施,以降低山东省CRC的死亡负担。
  • 表  1  2030年结直肠癌相关危险因素场景设定

    Table  1.   Scenario settings for colorectal cancer-related risk factors in 2030

    危险因素控制场景Risk factor control scenario 场景定义Scenario definition
    自然趋势Natural trend 2030年所有危险因素按2010―2018年暴露趋势变化By 2030, all risk factors are expected to change following the exposure trends from 2010 to 2018
    控制场景Controlled scenario
      饮酒情况达标Alcohol consumption compliance 2030年总体酒精消费量比2013年相对减少10%The overall alcohol consumption in 2030 will be 10% lower than in 2013
      BMI达标BMI compliance 2030年BMI水平与2013年相同BMI levels in 2030 will remain the same as in 2013
      各危险因素均达标All risk factors compliance 2030年总体酒精消费量比2013年相对减少10%,BMI水平与2013年相同Alcohol consumption in 2030 is 10% less than in 2013, with BMI unchanged
    注:自然趋势场景下,采用比例变化模型[8]按既往变化趋势估计2030年危险因素暴露水平。
    Notes: In the natural trend scenario, the 2030 risk factor exposure is estimated using the proportional change model.
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  2030年山东省人口预测结果

    Table  2.   Predicted population of Shandong Province in 2030

    年龄组/岁Age group/years 人口数Population 死亡数/例Deaths/cases 死亡率Mortality/100 000-1
    20~<25 6 456 332 16.56 0.26
    25~<30 5 612 390 19.93 0.36
    30~<35 5 055 459 54.46 1.08
    35~<40 4 779 395 71.33 1.49
    40~<45 9 287 151 184.76 1.99
    45~<50 6 964 784 351.22 5.04
    50~<55 6 367 837 533.03 8.37
    55~<60 7 649 123 758.94 9.92
    60~<65 8 803 548 1 146.98 13.03
    ≥65 21 826 735 8 856.53 40.58
    合计Total 82 802 754 11 993.75 14.48
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  2013年和2030年自然趋势场景下山东省>20岁人群结直肠癌死亡情况

    Table  3.   Mortality situation from colorectal cancer among people aged 20 and over in Shandong Province under the natural trend scenario in 2013 and 2030

    性别Gender 2013年Year 2030年Year 变化情况Change situation/%
    死亡数/例Deaths/cases 死亡率Mortality/100 000-1 标化死亡率Standardizedmortalityrate/100 000-1 死亡数/例Deaths/cases 死亡率Mortality/100 000-1 标化死亡率Standardizedmortalityrate/100 000-1 死亡数/例Deaths/cases 死亡率Mortality/100 000-1 标化死亡率Standardizedmortalityrate/100 000-1
    男性Male 4 701.48 12.40 11.32 7 187.15 17.54 10.93 52.87 41.43 -3.42
    女性Female 3 419.70 8.98 8.31 4 806.60 11.49 6.62 40.56 27.92 -20.32
    合计Total 8 121.18 10.69 9.79 11 993.75 14.48 8.37 47.68 35.51 -14.48
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  2013年和2030年自然趋势场景下山东省结直肠癌过早死亡情况

    Table  4.   Premature mortality from colorectal cancer in Shandong Province under the natural trend scenario in 2013 and 2030

    性别Gender 2013年Year 2030年Year 变化情况Change situation/%
    死亡数/例Deaths/cases 死亡率Mortality/100 000-1 早死概率Prematuredeathprobability/% 死亡数/例Deaths/cases 死亡率Mortality/100 000-1 早死概率Prematuredeathprobability/% 死亡数/例Deaths/cases 死亡率Mortality/100 000-1 早死概率Prematuredeathprobability/%
    男性Male 2 233.76 8.41 0.43 3 015.80 10.70 0.41 35.01 27.11 -4.67
    女性Female 1 446.28 5.52 0.28 1 771.30 6.34 0.23 22.47 14.82 -16.12
    合计Total 3 680.03 6.98 0.36 4 787.10 8.52 0.32 30.08 22.21 -10.10
    注:早死概率由寿命表法计算得到,表示30~70岁人群因结直肠癌死亡的可能性。
    Note: The premature death probability is calculated by the life table method, indicating the possibility of death from colorectal cancer in people aged 30-70 years old.
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  5  2030年各种危险因素控制场景下>20岁人群结直肠癌死亡变化情况

    Table  5.   Changes in colorectal cancer mortality among population over 20 years old under various risk factor control scenarios in 2030

    场景Scenarios 死亡数Deaths 减少人数Number of reductions 减少比例Reduction ratio /%
    饮酒达标Alcohol consumption compliance
      男性Male 6 862.10 325.05 4.52
      女性Female 4 801.85 4.75 0.10
      总计Total 11 663.94 329.80 2.75
    BMI达标BMI compliance
      男性Male 7103.48 83.67 1.16
      女性Female 4 800.66 5.94 0.12
      总计Total 11 904.14 89.61 0.75
    双达标Double compliance
      男性Male 6 784.59 402.56 5.60
      女性Female 4 795.92 10.68 0.22
      总计Total 11 580.50 413.24 3.45
    注:①表示与2030年自然趋势下同指标比较。
    Note: ① Denotes a comparison with the same indicator under the natural trend scenario for the year 2030.
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  6  2030年各种危险因素控制场景下结直肠癌过早死亡情况

    Table  6.   Premature deaths from colorectal cancer under various risk factor control scenarios in 2030

    性别Gender 饮酒达标Alcohol consumption compliance BMI达标BMI compliance 双达标Double compliance
    死亡数/例Deaths/cases 减少人数Number of reductions 死亡数/例Deaths/cases 减少人数Number of reductions 死亡数/例Deaths/cases 减少人数Number of reductions
    男性Male 2 899.75 116.05 2 960.49 55.31 2 847.95 167.85
    女性Female 1 768.98 2.32 1 767.98 3.32 1 765.66 5.64
    合计Total 4 668.73 118.37 4 728.47 58.63 4 613.61 173.49
    注:①表示与2030年自然趋势场景下的30~70岁人群的死亡数相比。
    Note: ① Indicates a comparison with the number of deaths in the 30-70 age group under the ′natural trend′ scenario for 2030.
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  7  2030年各控制场景结直肠癌过早死亡概率变化情况

    Table  7.   Changes in premature death probability from colorectal cancer under different control scenarios in 2030

    性别Gender 饮酒达标Alcohol consumption compliance/% BMI达标BMI compliance/% 双达标Double compliance/%
    早死概率Premature death probability 减少比例Reduction ratio 早死概率Premature death probability 减少比例Reduction ratio 早死概率Premature death probability 减少比例Reduction ratio
    男性Male 0.39 8.99 0.40 7.10 0.39 10.59
    女性Female 0.24 15.66 0.23 15.70 0.23 15.81
    合计Total 0.31 12.11 0.32 11.02 0.31 13.14
    注:①表示与2013年30~70岁人群的死亡概率相比。
    Note: ① Indicates the comparison with the mortality probability of people aged 30-70 in 2013.
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2024-05-07
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