Correlation analysis of influenza activity level and meteorological factors in Jiangxi Province from 2017 to 2021
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摘要:
目的 分析江西省流行性感冒(简称流感)活动水平、不同亚型流感流行活动水平和气象因子间的相关性，识别影响不同亚型流感活动水平流行的主要气象因子，为评价不同气象因子与流感活动水平的关联性和开展流感气象预测预警提供依据。 方法 收集2017―2021年江西省流感哨点医院各周采集的流感样病例(influenza-like cases, ILI)标本检测结果和同期气象数据，采用R 4.1.3软件进行描述性流行病学分析和相关分析，并采用广义线性模型进行多因素回归分析。 结果 2017―2021年江西省流感监测哨点医院ILI标本检测阳性率分别为19.46%、11.72%、20.24%、6.46%和8.27%，除2017年阳性率最高的季节在第3季度外，其他年份均在第1季度，且每年的优势流感病毒亚型不同；ILI标本流感病毒核酸检测阳性率与平均气温(r=-0.436, P＜0.001)、日照时数(r=-0.165, P=0.007)、最大风速(r=-0.164, P=0.008)、最低气温(r=-0.406, P＜0.001)和最高气温(r=-0.427, P＜0.001)均呈负相关；各亚型流感中，新甲型H1N1、乙型流感病毒Victoria系(简称Victoria)和乙型流感病毒Yamagata系(简称Yamagata)流感与平均气温、最低气温以及最高气温均呈负相关，此外新甲型H1N1流感还与日照时数、日降水量呈负相关，Yamagata流感与最大风速呈负相关；回归分析显示，不同亚型流感与平均气温呈较强的负相关，与其他气象因素的关联差异无统计学意义。 结论 江西省流感活动水平与气象因素存在相关性，不同亚型流感检测阳性率与气象因素间的关联性存在差异，平均气温是影响流感活动水平的主要因素。 Abstract:Objective To analyze the correlation and interaction between the prevalence of different subtypes of influenza in Jiangxi Province, and to identify the main meteorological factors affecting the prevalence of different subtypes of influenza, so as to provide the basis for evaluating the correlation between different meteorological factors and influenza activity level, as well as for carrying out meteorological prediction and early warning of influenza. Methods The testing results of influenza-like cases (ILI) specimens from influenza sentinel hospitals in Jiangxi Province from 2017 to 2021 were collected weekly, along with meteorological data from the same period. Then, descriptive epidemiological analysis and correlation analysis were conducted using R 4.1.3 software, and generalized linear models were used for multi-factor regression analysis. Results The positive rate of ILI samples collected from sentinel hospitals of Jiangxi Province from 2017 to 2021 were 19.46%, 11.72%, 20.24%, 6.46% and 8.27%, respectively, with the highest positive rate occurring in the first quarter of each year except for the third quarter of 2017. Additionally, the dominant influenza virus subtypes varied annually. The positive rate of influenza virus nucleic acid detection was significantly associated with mean air temperature (r=-0.436, P < 0.001), sunshine hours (r=-0.165, P=0.007), maximum wind speed (r=-0.164, P=0.008), minimum air temperature (r=-0.406, P < 0.001) and the maximum temperature (r=-0.427, P < 0.001) that were all found to have a negative correlation. The subtypes of influenza, including influenza A (H1N1), influenza B virus Victoria lineage (Victoria) and influenza B virus Yamagata lineage (Yamagata for short), exhibited a negative correlation with average temperature, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature. Furthermore, H1N1 showed a negative correlation with sunshine duration and daily precipitation, while influenza Yamagata was negatively correlated with maximum wind speed. However, regression analysis revealed that the different subtypes of influenza were strongly negatively correlated with average temperature but did not show any correlation with other meteorological factors. Conclusions The correlation between influenza activity levels and meteorological factors in Jiangxi Province was clearly evident, with varying correlations observed between the positive rates of different subtypes of influenza and meteorological factors. Among these factors, average temperature was identified as the primary factor influencing influenza activity level. -
Key words:
- Influenza /
- Activity level /
- Meteorological factors /
- Correlation analysis
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图 1 江西省2017―2021年各季度哨点医院流感样病例标本检测结果
Victoria：乙型流感病毒Victoria系；Yamagata：乙型流感病毒Yamagata系。
Figure 1. Test results of influenza-like case samples from sentinel hospitals in Jiangxi Province each quarter from 2017 to 2021
Victoria: influenza B virus Victoria lineage; Yamagata: influenza B virus Yamagata lineage.
图 2 江西省哨点医院流感样病例标本检测阳性率与不同气象因素相关曲线图
Figure 2. Correlation curve between the positive rate of influenza-like case samples and different meteorological factors in sentinel hospitals of Jiangxi Province
表 1 江西省2017―2021年各季度哨点医院流感样病例标本检测结果
Table 1. Test results of influenza-like case samples from sentinel hospitals in Jiangxi Province from 2017 to 2021
年份Year 季度Quarter 不同亚型流感Different subtypes of influenza 阳性率Positive rate/% Victoria 新甲型H1N1A(H1N1)type 季节性H3N2SeasonalH3N2 type Yamagata H9N2H9N2 type H7H7 type 混合型Mixed type 合计Total 2017 1 35 116 206 68 0 6 0 4 030 10.69 2 95 222 37 114 0 0 0 4 063 11.52 3 21 32 899 99 0 0 0 3 914 26.85 4 49 57 45 522 0 0 0 3 998 16.83 2018 1 40 1 019 29 549 0 0 4 4 143 39.61 2 0 17 2 8 0 0 0 3 634 0.74 3 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 3 402 0.12 4 4 93 28 0 0 0 0 4 154 3.01 2019 1 215 1 148 479 3 0 0 0 4 827 38.22 2 613 45 60 1 0 0 0 3 864 18.61 3 206 1 119 0 0 0 0 3 770 8.65 4 188 19 208 0 0 0 0 3 866 10.73 2020 1 319 78 392 5 0 0 0 4 063 19.54 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 3 770 0.11 3 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 041 0.30 4 211 4 64 0 0 0 0 4 974 5.61 2021 1 851 0 0 0 1 0 0 4 836 17.62 2 253 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 901 5.16 3 327 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 974 6.57 4 172 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 696 3.66 合计Total 3 613 2 854 2 571 1 369 1 6 4 83 920 12.41 注：Victoria，乙型流感病毒Victoria系；Yamagata，乙型流感病毒Yamagata系。
Note: Victoria, influenza B virus Victoria lineage; Yamagata, influenza B virus Yamagata lineage.
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表 2 江西省哨点医院流感样病例标本不同亚型流感检测阳性率与气象因素相关分析
Table 2. Pearson correlation analysis between the positive rates of different subtypes of influenza and meteorological factors in influenza-like case samples from sentinel hospitals in Jiangxi Province
因素Factor 季节性H3N2Seasonal H3N2 新甲型H1N1A (H1N1) Victoria Yamagata r值value P值value r值value P值value r值value P值value r值value P值value 平均气温Mean air temperature/℃ -0.023 0.708 -0.435 ＜0.001 -0.173 0.005 -0.289 ＜0.001 日照时数Sunshine duration/h 0.049 0.434 -0.226 ＜0.001 -0.079 0.204 -0.073 0.242 最大风速Maximum wind speed/(m·s-1) 0.015 0.804 -0.151 0.014 -0.064 0.305 -0.160 0.009 日降水量Daily precipitation/mm -0.056 0.366 -0.038 0.539 -0.007 0.906 -0.086 0.165 平均相对湿度Mean relative humidity/% 0.062 0.318 0.105 0.092 0.005 0.933 -0.052 0.404 最低气温Minimum air temperature/℃ -0.022 0.720 -0.400 ＜0.001 -0.188 0.002 -0.258 ＜0.001 最高气温Maximum air temperature/℃ -0.030 0.632 -0.433 ＜0.001 -0.157 0.011 -0.276 ＜0.001 注：Victoria，乙型流感病毒Victoria系；Yamagata，乙型流感病毒Yamagata系。
Note: Victoria, influenza B virus Victoria lineage; Yamagata, influenza B virus Yamagata lineage.
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表 3 江西省哨点医院流感样病例标本检测阳性率与气象因素间的广义线性模型回归分析
Table 3. Regression analysis of generalized linear model between detection positive rate of influenza-like case samples and meteorological factors from sentinel hospitals of Jiangxi
因素Factor 季节性H3N2Seasonal H3N2 新甲型H1N1A (H1N1) Victoria Yamagata r值value t值value P值value r值value t值value P值value r值value t值value P值value r值value t值value P值value 平均气温Mean air temperature/℃ -0.001 -0.04 0.965 -0.176 -8.85 ＜0.001 -0.037 -2.82 0.005 -0.123 -5.35 ＜0.001 最大风速Maximum wind speed/(m·s-1) 0.322 1.18 0.240 0.303 1.30 0.194 0.056 0.31 0.760 -0.415 -1.31 0.190 日降水量Daily precipitation/mm -0.107 -2.14 0.034 0.030 0.81 0.418 0.019 0.75 0.456 0.042 0.86 0.389 平均相对湿度Mean relative humidity/% 0.058 2.28 0.023 0.016 1.02 0.307 -0.007 -0.51 0.608 -0.030 -1.61 0.110 截距Intercept -4.332 -1.78 0.076 0.969 0.56 0.574 2.276 1.65 0.100 6.256 2.91 0.004 注：Victoria，乙型流感病毒Victoria系；Yamagata，乙型流感病毒Yamagata系。
Note: Victoria, influenza B virus Victoria lineage; Yamagata, influenza B virus Yamagata lineage.
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