2004―2023年安徽省HIV/AIDS流行时空分布特征

李宝珠; 周倩倩; 戴色莺

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.03.015

2004―2023年安徽省HIV/AIDS流行时空分布特征

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.03.015

1.
安徽医科大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系，合肥大健康研究院健康大数据与群体医学研究所，合肥 230032
2.
安徽省疾病预防控制中心艾滋病与性病预防控制所，合肥 230601

基金项目:

合肥大健康研究院健康大数据与群体医学研究所项目 JKS2022023

详细信息

通讯作者:
戴色莺，E-mail: fjptdsy@126.com

中图分类号: R181.3
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-12-02
- 修回日期: 2025-01-27
- 网络出版日期: 2025-04-11
- 刊出日期: 2025-03-10

Temporal-spatial distribution of AIDS epidemic in Anhui Province, 2004-2023

1.
School of Public Health (Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics), Hefei Institute of Health Research Institute, Hefei 230032, China
2.
Institute of AIDS and STD Prevention and Control, Anhui Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hefei 230601, China

Funds:

Project of Center for Big Data and Population Health of IHM JKS2022023

More Information

Corresponding author: DAI Seying, E-mail: fjptdsy@126.com

摘要

摘要: 目的探讨2004―2023年安徽省人类免疫缺陷病毒(human immunodeficiency virus, HIV)/艾滋病(acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, AIDS)患者的时空分布特征，为制定AIDS防治策略提供建议。方法基于2004―2023年安徽省104个区(县)历年报告的HIV/AIDS病例数，使用GeoDa 1.22软件进行全局空间自相关和局部空间自相关分析，使用SaTScan 10.2.5软件进行时空扫描分析获得AIDS疫情聚集特点，采用QGIS 3.30软件绘制聚集区和可视化结果，描述分析近20年疫情空间分布。结果 2004―2023年安徽省AIDS病例空间分布扩大且局部集中，全局莫兰指数(Moran′s I)范围为0.254 9~0.579 1，Z值均＞1.96且P < 0.01，2004―2023年存在全局空间自相关。时空扫描结果显示存在3个统计显著聚集区(均P＜0.001)。结论 2004―2023年安徽省AIDS“高-高”聚集区集中于皖北地区，并逐渐扩大至周围地区，提示安徽省西北部为防控重点，应有针对性地实施防控措施。
- 艾滋病 /
- 空间自相关 /
- 时空扫描 /
- 时空聚集
Abstract: Objective To explore the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of HIV-infected persons and patients in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2023, and to provide suggestions for prevention and treatment strategies. Methods Based on HIV/AIDS cases reported in 104 counties and districts in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2023, global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses were conducted using GeoDa 1.22, while spatio-temporal scanning analyses were performed with SaTScan 10.2.5. The results were visualized using QGIS 3.30 to describe and analyze the spatial distribution of the epidemic over the past 20 years. Results The spatial distribution of AIDS cases in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2023 expanded with local concentrations. Global Moran′s I ranged from 0.254 9 to 0.579 1, with all Z-values >1.96 and P < 0.01, indicating significant global spatial autocorrelation. The spatio-temporal scan identified three statistically significant clusters (all P < 0.001). Conclusions Over the past 20 years, the high and high concentration of AIDS areas in northern Anhui have gradually expanded. This suggests that northwest Anhui is a key focus for prevention and control, requiring targeted measures based on local conditions.
- Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome /
- Spatial autocorrelation /
- Space-time scan /
- Space-time cluster

HTML全文

图 1 2004―2023年安徽省HIV/AIDS病例局部空间自相关分析

HIV，人类免疫缺陷病毒; AIDS，艾滋病。

Figure 1. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis of HIV/AIDS cases in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2023

HIV, human immunodeficiency virus; AIDS, acquired immunodeficiency syndrome.

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图 2 2004―2023年安徽省HIV/AIDS报告病例数的时空扫描分析

Figure 2. Spatiotemporal scan analysis of the number of reported HIV/AIDS cases in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2023

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 2004―2023年安徽省HIV/AIDS病例总体空间自相关分析

Table 1. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis of HIV/AIDS cases in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2023

年份 Year	Moran′s I	Z值 value	P值 value	年份 Year	Moran′s I	Z值 value	P值 value
2004	0.254 9	4.604 8	0.005	2014	0.464 8	7.775 7	0.001
2005	0.366 1	6.377 9	0.001	2015	0.542 7	8.979 1	0.001
2006	0.424 3	7.174 9	0.001	2016	0.538 8	9.084 1	0.001
2007	0.380 0	6.442 8	0.001	2017	0.506 4	8.361 7	0.001
2008	0.435 9	7.415 6	0.001	2018	0.579 1	9.405 5	0.001
2009	0.428 4	7.415 6	0.001	2019	0.524 9	8.717 7	0.001
2010	0.474 3	8.006 8	0.001	2020	0.560 4	9.132 3	0.001
2011	0.395 2	6.689 2	0.001	2021	0.567 5	9.294 3	0.001
2012	0.398 9	6.761 9	0.001	2022	0.553 4	8.931 2	0.001
2013	0.482 2	8.121 7	0.001	2023	0.512 7	8.464 0	0.001
注：HIV，人类免疫缺陷病毒; AIDS，艾滋病。 Note: HIV, human immunodeficiency virus; AIDS, acquired immunodeficiency syndrome.

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