中国帕金森病疾病负担变化趋势及预测

王子豪; 夏欢; 王晓蓓; 李沛珊; 高美蓉; 杜心雨; 杨新玲

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.06.003

中国帕金森病疾病负担变化趋势及预测

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.06.003

王子豪^{1, 2},
夏欢^{1, 2},
王晓蓓¹,
李沛珊^{1, 2},
高美蓉³,
杜心雨⁴,
杨新玲^{1, 2, ,}

1.
省部共建中亚高发病成因与防治国家重点实验室，乌鲁木齐 830054
2.
新疆医科大学第二附属医院神经内科，乌鲁木齐 830063
3.
吉林大学白求恩第二医院中心实验室，长春 130021
4.
南京医科大学附属江苏省人民医院神经内科，南京 211166

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金 82371258

新疆维吾尔自治区重点研发计划项目 2023B03003

科技创新领军人才项目 2022TSYCLJ0066

省部共建中亚高发病成因与防治国家重点实验室开放课题项目 SKL-HIDCA-2022-NKX3

详细信息

通讯作者:
杨新玲，E-mail: yangxinling2014@163.com

中图分类号: R742.5; R181
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-11-13
- 修回日期: 2025-01-29
- 网络出版日期: 2025-07-07
- 刊出日期: 2025-06-10

Trends and predictions of Parkinson′s disease burden in China

WANG Zihao^{1, 2},
XIA Huan^{1, 2},
WANG Xiaobei¹,
LI Peishan^{1, 2},
GAO Meirong³,
DU Xinyu⁴,
YANG Xinling^{1, 2
, ,}

1.
State Key Laboratory of Pathogenesis, Prevention and Treatment of High Incidence Diseases in Central Asia, Urumqi 830054, China
2.
Department of Neurology, Second Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830063, China
3.
The Second Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China
4.
Department of Neurology, Jiangsu Province Hospital, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China

Funds:

National Natural Science Foundation of China 82371258

Key Research and Development Program of Xinjiang Autonomous Region 2023B03003

Science and Technology Innovation Leading Talent Project 2022TSYCLJ0066

Open Project of State Key Laboratory of Pathogenesis, Prevention and Treatment of High Incidence Diseases in Central Asia SKL-HIDCA-2022-NKX3

More Information

Corresponding author: YANG Xinling, E-mail: yangxinling2014@163.com

摘要

摘要: 目的分析中国帕金森病(Parkinson′s disease, PD)流行状况及发病趋势，为制定PD防控政策提供科学依据。方法采用年龄-时期-队列(age-period-cohort, APC)模型，对1990―2021年中国PD患病率及发病率进行分析，评估不同年龄、时间段及出生队列对PD流行趋势的影响。通过差分自回归移动平均(autoregressive integrated moving average, ARIMA)模型，对2024―2030年PD发病率进行预测。结果 1990―2021年，中国PD年龄标准化发病率由12.8/10万上升至24.3/10万(P＜0.001)，死亡率则从6.80/10万下降至5.03/10万(P＜0.001)。PD在≥30岁人群中发病率迅速升高，70~＜75岁年龄组发病人数最多(81 945人)。基于ARIMA模型预测，到2030年，全国PD发病率预计将上升至26.52/10万(95% CI：24.73/10万~28.31/10万)，其中男性为35.20/10万(95% CI：33.20/10万~37.21/10万)，女性为20.96/10万(95% CI：20.27/10万~21.65/10万)。结论中国PD疾病负担加剧，发病人群以老年人为主，且存在性别差异。预测未来PD发病率仍呈上升趋势，需进一步加强PD的早期诊断、预防和管理，以减轻公共卫生负担。
- 帕金森病 /
- 疾病负担 /
- 流行趋势 /
- 年龄-时期-队列模型
Abstract: Objective This study aims to investigate the prevalence and incidence trends of Parkinson′s disease (PD) in China to provide scientific evidence for developing PD prevention and control policies. Methods The age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to analyze the prevalence and incidence of PD in China from 1990 to 2021, assessing the impact of different age groups, time periods, and birth cohorts on the trends of PD. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was employed to predict the PD incidence from 2024 to 2030. Results From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate of PD in China increased from 12.8 per 100 000 to 24.3 per 100 000 (P < 0.001), while the mortality rate decreased from 6.80 per 100 000 to 5.03 per 100 000 (P < 0.001). The incidence rate of PD rapidly increased among individuals aged 30 and above, with the highest number of cases observed in the 70- < 75 age group, reaching 81 945 cases. Based on the ARIMA model, it is predicted that by 2030, the national incidence rate of PD will rise to 26.52 per 100 000 (95% CI: 24.73/100 000-28.31/100 000), with the rate for men at 35.20 per 100 000 (95% CI: 33.20/100 000-37.21/100 000) and for women at 20.96 per 100 000 (95% CI: 20.27/100 000-21.65/100 000). Conclusions China′s PD burden is worsening, predominantly affecting the elderly, with observed gender differences. The incidence of PD is expected to continue rising in the future, necessitating further strengthening of early diagnosis, prevention, and management of PD to reduce its public health burden.
- Parkinson′s disease /
- Disease burden /
- Epidemiological trends /
- Age-period-cohort model

HTML全文

图 1 中国帕金森病分性别发病率及患病率趋势分析

A：男性与女性发病率队列趋势；B：男性与女性患病率队列趋势。

Figure 1. Analysis of gender-specific incidence and prevalence trends of Parkinson′s disease in China

A: incidence trends between male and female cohorts; B: prevalence trends between male and female cohorts.

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 不同年龄组帕金森病发病与患病情况的队列趋势

A：不同年龄组帕金森病发病情况的队列趋势；B：不同年龄组帕金森病患病情况的队列趋势。

Figure 2. Cohort trends of incidence and prevalence of Parkinson′s disease across different age groups

A: cohort trends of incidence of Parkinson′s disease across different age groups; B: cohort trends in prevalence of Parkinson′s disease across different age groups.

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 男性、女性及全人群帕金森病发病率预测情况

A~C：依次表示男性、女性和全人群帕金森病发病率预测情况。

Figure 3. Predicted incidence rates of Parkinson′s disease for males, females, and the total population

A-C: predicted incidence rate of Parkinson′s disease in male, female, and the total population is indicated in order.

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 2024―2030年中国帕金森病发病情况预测值

Table 1. Predicted incidence of Parkinson′s disease in China, 2024-2030

年份 Year	全人群Total population/100 000^-1		男性Male/100 000^-1		女性Female/100 000^-1
年份 Year	预测值Prediction	95% CI	预测值Prediction	95% CI	预测值Prediction	95% CI
2024	25.07	24.67~25.46	32.57	32.15~32.98	19.40	19.08~19.72
2025	25.31	24.73~25.89	33.06	32.39~33.73	19.66	19.26~20.06
2026	25.55	24.76~26.34	33.53	32.59~34.47	19.92	19.44~20.39
2027	25.79	24.78~26.80	33.97	32.77~35.18	20.18	19.64~20.71
2028	26.03	24.78~27.29	34.39	32.92~35.85	20.44	19.85~21.03
2029	26.27	24.76~27.79	34.79	33.06~36.52	20.70	20.05~21.34
2030	26.52	24.73~28.31	35.20	33.20~37.21	20.96	20.27~21.65

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