2004―2019年湖北省甲型肝炎流行特征分析及预测

李丽娜; 李宁; 胡樱; 刘娜; 宇传华; 王雷; 王旭艳

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.10.011

2004―2019年湖北省甲型肝炎流行特征分析及预测

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.10.011

李丽娜²,
李宁²,
胡樱^1, ,,
刘娜²,
宇传华¹,
王雷²,
王旭艳¹

1.
430071 武汉, 武汉大学健康学院
2.
430079 武汉, 湖北省疾病预防控制中心

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划 2017YFC1200502

国家自然科学基金 81773552

详细信息

通讯作者:
胡樱, E-mail:yingerhu2011@qq.com

中图分类号: R181
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2020-06-10
- 修回日期: 2020-08-14
- 刊出日期: 2020-10-10

Analysis and prediction of the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis A in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2019

1.
430071 Wuhan, School of Health Science of Wuhan University
2.
430079 Wuhan, Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Funds:

National Key Research and Development Project of China 2017YFC1200502

National Natural Science Foundation of China 81773552

More Information

Corresponding author: HU Ying,E-mail:yingerhu2011@qq.com

摘要

摘要: 目的分析湖北省2004―2019年甲型病毒性肝炎（简称“甲肝”）流行病学特征，为评价和制定甲肝防控策略提供科学依据。方法采用描述流行病学方法，对湖北省2004―2019年甲肝疫情资料进行统计分析。采用自回归整合移动平均模型（auto regression integrated moving average，ARIMA）季节模型对未来甲肝发病情况进行预测。结果湖北省2004―2019年累计报告甲肝病例25 080例，年平均发病率为2.71/10万。甲肝的发病率从2004年的5.88/10万降低到2019年的1.43/10万。发病人群以农民为主（占59.13%）。发病人数构成较高的年龄段主要为35~65岁以下壮年人群（占56.80%）。男女比例为2.03:1，性别比在2019年已经降至1.06。病例主要以散发为主，研究期间共有6次暴发，均与教育机构有关。2010年至2017年间，湖北省儿童的甲肝疫苗接种率均在90%以上。ARIMA模型预测甲肝发病人数会持续下降，在2030年降低到484例，预估发病率低于1/10万。结论 2004―2019年间，甲肝防控措施成效明显。今后在做好适龄儿童免疫接种工作的同时，需要加强农村人群，尤其是壮年农民的综合防控措施。虽然在2030年还不能消除甲肝发病，但可进一步降低疾病危害。
- 甲型病毒性肝炎 /
- 流行病学特征 /
- 预测
Abstract: Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis A in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2019, so as to provide scientific evidence for the evaluation and formulation of hepatitis A prevention and control strategies. Methods A descriptive epidemiological study was conducted to analyze the data of hepatitis A in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2019. Auto regression integrated moving (ARIMA) average seasonal model was used to predict the occurrence of hepatitis A in the future. Results A total of 25 080 cases of hepatitis A were reported in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2019, and the average annual incidence rate was 2.71/100 000. The incidence rate of hepatitis A dropped from 5.88/100 000 in 2004 to 1.43/100 000 in 2019. The majority of patients were farmers (59.13%). The age of onset was mainly 35-65 years old (56.80%). The ratio of male to female was 2.03:1 in 2014, and decreased to 1.06:1 in 2019. The reported cases were mainly sporadic. During the study period, there were 6 outbreaks. All outbreaks were related to educational organizations. From 2010 to 2017, the hepatitis A vaccination rate of children in Hubei Province was over 90%. The number of hepatitis A new cases predicted by ARIMA model continued to decline, and it reduced to 484 cases in 2030, with a predicted incidence rate below 1/100 000. Conclusions From 2004 to 2019, the prevention and control measures of hepatitis A are effective. In the future, it is necessary to strengthen the comprehensive prevention and control measures for the rural population, especially for the middle-aged farmers, while doing a good job in the immunization plan of children. The occurrence of hepatitis A cannot be eliminated in 2030, but current prevention measures can further reduce the harm of the disease.
- Hepatitis A /
- Epidemiological characteristics /
- Prediction

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图 1 2004―2019年湖北省甲肝报告新发病例数和发病率(1/10万)

Figure 1. Reported new case number and incidence of Hepatitis A in Hubei from 2004 to 2019 (1/100 000)

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 2004―2019年湖北省甲肝新发病例月分布

Figure 2. Monthly distribution of Hepatitis A new reported cases number in Hubei from 2004 to 2019

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 2004―2019年湖北省甲肝发病率地区差别

Figure 3. Regional difference of Hepatitis A incidence in Hubei from 2004 to 2019

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 2004―2019年湖北省报告甲肝新发病例年龄及其构成变化

Figure 4. Reported new case number and proportion change of Hepatitis A in Hubei from 2004 to 2019

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 2010-2019湖北省甲肝发病人数建立的ARIMA(1, 1, 1)(1, 0, 1)模型预测结果

Figure 5. Prediction results of ARIMA (1, 1, 1) (1, 0, 1) model of hepatitis A patients number in Hubei from 2010 to 2019

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 湖北省2010-2017年出生儿童HepA接种率

Table 1. Coverage rates of Hepatitis A vaccination among children born in Hubei from 2010 to 2017

出生年份	儿童数	接种数	接种率(%)
2010	671 781	617 344	91.90
2011	740 673	720 180	97.23
2012	795 366	777 225	97.72
2013	718 512	708 806	98.65
2014	717 925	714 004	99.45
2015	684 194	665 072	97.21
2016	761 673	738 022	96.89
2017	715 913	709 095	99.05
合计	5 806 037	5 649 748	97.31

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