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北京市居民健康期望寿命评价:三种测算方法的比较研究

苏健婷 王苹 杜婧 王晶 刘庆萍 李刚 韦再华

苏健婷, 王苹, 杜婧, 王晶, 刘庆萍, 李刚, 韦再华. 北京市居民健康期望寿命评价:三种测算方法的比较研究[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2022, 26(2): 156-161, 168. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.02.006
引用本文: 苏健婷, 王苹, 杜婧, 王晶, 刘庆萍, 李刚, 韦再华. 北京市居民健康期望寿命评价:三种测算方法的比较研究[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2022, 26(2): 156-161, 168. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.02.006
SU Jian-ting, WANG Ping, DU Jing, WANG Jing, LIU Qing-ping, LI Gang, WEI Zai-hua. Evaluation of healthy-adjusted life expectancy in Beijing City, China: A comparative study of three calculating methods[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2022, 26(2): 156-161, 168. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.02.006
Citation: SU Jian-ting, WANG Ping, DU Jing, WANG Jing, LIU Qing-ping, LI Gang, WEI Zai-hua. Evaluation of healthy-adjusted life expectancy in Beijing City, China: A comparative study of three calculating methods[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2022, 26(2): 156-161, 168. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.02.006

北京市居民健康期望寿命评价:三种测算方法的比较研究

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.02.006
基金项目: 

首都卫生发展科研专项 2018-1-1011

北京市优秀人才培养资助项目 2018000021469G295

详细信息
    通讯作者:

    李刚,E-mail: ligang@bjcdc.org

    韦再华,E-mail: wzh.g@163.com

  • 中图分类号: R195.3

Evaluation of healthy-adjusted life expectancy in Beijing City, China: A comparative study of three calculating methods

Funds: 

Capital's Funds for Health Improvement and Research 2018-1-1011

Beijing Excellent Talent Funding 2018000021469G295

More Information
  • 摘要:   目的  应用三种方法测算北京市≥15岁居民健康期望寿命(healthy-adjusted life expectancy, HALE),评价北京市人群健康状况。  方法  收集北京市居民死因监测数据、北京市居民死因漏报调查数据、北京市居民自报健康调查数据和全球疾病负担研究(Global Burden of Disease Study, GBD)中北京市因伤残导致的寿命损失(years lived with disability, YLD)数据,计算自评伤残测度、HOPIT模型(Hierarchical ordered probit model)校正伤残测度和GBD伤残测度,通过沙利文(Sullivan)方法分别测算北京市≥15岁居民自评健康寿命年(healthy life years, HLY)、HOPIT模型校正的健康期望寿命(HALE_HOPIT)和GBD健康期望寿命(HALE_GBD)。  结果  北京市2015年,15~<20岁组居民期望寿命(life expectancy, LE)为67.7岁,HLY、HALE_HOPIT和HALE_GBD分别为51.9岁、44.1岁和57.8岁。在不同性别、各个年龄组均为HALE_GBD>HLY>HALE_HOPIT。HLY、HALE_HOPIT和HALE_GBD均随着年龄增长呈下降趋势。所有年龄组女性HLY和HALE_GBD均高于男性, < 80岁女性组HALE_HOPIT也高于男性,但≥80岁女性组HALE_HOPIT略低于男性。  结论  三种HALE测算结果存在较大差异,但性别、年龄趋势一致,均揭示北京市≥15岁居民因伤残损失较多的健康寿命年。三种测算结果的不同与对“健康”测量方法不同有关,仍需持续开展相关调查研究。
  • 图  1  北京市居民自评伤残测度、HOPIT模型校正伤残测度和GBD伤残测度

    Figure  1.  Self-reported disability weight, HOPIT model-adjusted disability weight, and GBD disability weight among residents in Beijing City

    图  2  2015年北京市居民LE、HLY、HALE_HOPIT、HALE_GBD及其性别比较

    Figure  2.  Healthy life years, HOPIT healthy-adjusted life expectancy, and GBD healthy-adjusted life expectancy by gender and age groups among residents in Beijing City, 2015

    表  1  2015年北京市居民HLY及其性别比较

    Table  1.   Healthy life years by gender and age groups among residents in Beijing City, 2015

    年龄组
    (岁)
    全部(岁) LHE/LE(%) 女性(岁) LHE/LE(%) 男性(岁) LHE/LE(%)
    LE HLY LHE LE HLY LHE LE HLY LHE
    15~<20 67.7 51.9 15.8 23.4 69.5 53.2 16.2 23.4 64.8 50.3 14.5 22.3
    20~<25 62.7 47.1 15.7 25.0 64.5 48.4 16.1 25.0 59.8 45.6 14.3 23.8
    25~<30 57.8 42.4 15.4 26.6 59.5 43.8 15.8 26.5 54.9 40.9 14.1 25.6
    30~<35 52.8 37.7 15.2 28.7 54.6 39.0 15.6 28.5 50.0 36.1 13.9 27.7
    35~<40 47.9 33.2 14.7 30.7 49.6 34.6 15.1 30.4 45.1 31.7 13.4 29.7
    40~<45 43.0 28.8 14.3 33.2 44.7 30.0 14.7 32.8 40.3 27.3 13.0 32.2
    45~<50 38.3 24.7 13.5 35.4 39.9 25.8 14.0 35.2 35.6 23.5 12.1 34.1
    50~<55 33.6 20.6 13.0 38.6 35.1 21.7 13.3 38.0 31.1 19.4 11.7 37.6
    55~<60 29.0 17.0 12.1 41.5 30.3 17.9 12.4 40.8 26.7 15.9 10.8 40.5
    60~<65 24.6 13.8 10.8 44.0 25.7 14.5 11.2 43.4 22.5 12.9 9.6 42.6
    65~<70 20.3 10.6 9.7 47.9 21.2 11.0 10.2 48.1 18.5 10.1 8.4 45.3
    70~<75 16.3 7.5 8.8 54.1 16.9 8.2 8.7 51.3 14.8 6.8 8.0 54.2
    75~<80 12.9 5.2 7.7 59.9 13.1 6.3 6.9 52.3 11.8 4.2 7.6 64.6
    ≥80 10.1 4.1 6.0 59.5 10.1 5.0 5.0 50.0 9.5 3.3 6.2 65.2
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  2015年北京市居民HALE_HOPIT及其性别比较

    Table  2.   HOPIT healthy-adjusted life expectancy by gender and age groups among residents in Beijing City, 2015

    年龄组
    (岁)
    全部(岁) LHE/LE(%) 女性(岁) LHE/LE(%) 男性(岁) LHE/LE(%)
    LE HLY LHE LE HLY LHE LE HLY LHE
    15~<20 67.7 44.1 23.6 34.9 69.5 44.2 25.3 36.4 64.8 43.4 21.3 33.0
    20~<25 62.7 39.6 23.1 36.9 64.5 39.9 24.6 38.1 59.8 38.8 21.1 35.2
    25~<30 57.8 35.1 22.6 39.2 59.5 35.4 24.1 40.5 54.9 34.3 20.6 37.5
    30~<35 52.8 30.7 22.1 41.9 54.6 31.0 23.6 43.2 50.0 29.9 20.1 40.2
    35~<40 47.9 26.3 21.6 45.2 49.6 26.6 23.0 46.4 45.1 25.5 19.6 43.5
    40~<45 43.0 22.9 20.1 46.8 44.7 23.3 21.5 48.0 40.3 22.0 18.3 45.3
    45~<50 38.3 19.5 18.8 49.1 39.9 19.8 20.1 50.4 35.6 18.7 16.9 47.5
    50~<55 33.6 16.1 17.5 52.2 35.1 16.3 18.7 53.4 31.1 15.3 15.8 50.7
    55~<60 29.0 12.7 16.3 56.1 30.3 12.9 17.4 57.4 26.7 12.1 14.6 54.7
    60~<65 24.6 10.4 14.2 57.8 25.7 10.5 15.2 59.0 22.5 9.8 12.7 56.4
    65~<70 20.3 8.1 12.2 60.3 21.2 8.1 13.0 61.6 18.5 7.6 10.8 58.6
    70~<75 16.3 5.8 10.5 64.2 16.9 5.9 11.0 65.3 14.8 5.5 9.3 63.0
    75~<80 12.9 3.8 9.1 70.5 13.1 3.7 9.4 71.4 11.8 3.6 8.2 69.5
    ≥80 10.1 3.0 7.1 70.4 10.1 2.6 7.5 74.3 9.5 3.0 6.5 68.4
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  2015年北京市居民HALE_HOPIT及其性别比较

    Table  3.   HOPIT healthy-adjusted life expectancy by gender and age groups among residents in Beijing City, 2015

    年龄组
    (岁)
    全部(岁) LHE/LE(%) 女性(岁) LHE/LE(%) 男性(岁) LHE/LE(%)
    LE HLY LHE LE HLY LHE LE HLY LHE
    15~<20 67.7 57.8 9.9 14.6 69.5 58.6 10.9 15.7 64.8 56.1 8.7 13.4
    20~<25 62.7 53.1 9.6 15.3 64.5 53.9 10.6 16.4 59.8 51.4 8.4 14.1
    25~<30 57.8 48.5 9.3 16.1 59.5 49.3 10.2 17.1 54.9 46.8 8.1 14.7
    30~<35 52.8 44.0 8.9 16.8 54.6 44.8 9.8 17.9 50.0 42.3 7.7 15.4
    35~<40 47.9 39.5 8.4 17.6 49.6 40.3 9.3 18.8 45.1 37.8 7.3 16.2
    40~<45 43.0 35.1 8.0 18.5 44.7 35.9 8.8 19.7 40.3 33.4 6.8 17.0
    45~<50 38.3 30.8 7.4 19.4 39.9 31.7 8.2 20.6 35.6 29.2 6.4 17.9
    50~<55 33.6 26.7 6.9 20.5 35.1 27.5 7.6 21.6 31.1 25.2 5.9 19.0
    55~<60 29.0 22.8 6.3 21.6 30.3 23.5 6.9 22.6 26.7 21.3 5.4 20.3
    60~<65 24.6 19.0 5.7 23.0 25.7 19.5 6.2 24.0 22.5 17.6 4.9 21.7
    65~<70 20.3 15.3 5.0 24.6 21.2 15.8 5.4 25.5 18.5 14.2 4.3 23.3
    70~<75 16.3 12.0 4.3 26.3 16.9 12.3 4.6 27.1 14.8 11.1 3.7 25.1
    75~<80 12.9 9.3 3.6 28.1 13.1 9.3 3.8 28.8 11.8 8.6 3.2 27.0
    ≥80 10.1 7.1 3.0 29.9 10.1 7.0 3.1 30.7 9.5 6.7 2.7 28.8
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2021-04-26
  • 修回日期:  2021-08-26
  • 网络出版日期:  2022-02-10
  • 刊出日期:  2022-02-10

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